NFL Rookie of the Year: The Sports Opinionated Picks

As Week 17 approaches and most of the playoff spots are decided, I like to look back on the season for some of the stand-out performances. MVP races get heated debate and so do late-season coaching decisions like sitting your starters or throwing your quarterback under the bus….yes Tom Cable, I’m talking to you.

One of the debates that gets knocked out of the spotlight is the Rookie of the Year award. This year, we’ve got some great, multi-positional debate to look forward to. I’ll give you my opinion, some stats and obviously my recommendations, but I’d love to hear your thoughts as well.

For each category, I narrowed it down to three candidates based on season stats, what I saw when I watched them play and the opinions of a few “experts” from the media.

Offensive Rookie of the Year
This seemed like a three-horse race from the outset. Knowshon Moreno, Percy Harvin and Beanie Wells all contributed mightily to their teams. As I looked a little deeper, honorable mention would also go to Hakeem Nicks, Austin Collie, LeSean McCoy and Mike Wallace. Michael Crabtree has the talent to be in the group, but he dug his own hole in the competition with an early season holdout.

None of this year’s candidates were clear cut starters on their team. Harvin often played as a slot receiver or Wildcat back. Moreno split carries with Correll Buckhalter and Wells slowly earned more playing time in place of Tim Hightower.

Here is a breakdown of their statistical impact:

Wells is clearly superior to Moreno as a running back. His yards-per-carry is much better and his DVOA shows a much better impact per play than Moreno. Not only that, but Wells’ success rate was the 5th highest ranking in the entire league.

That leaves Wells and Harvin as the two to choose from. Statistically, they’ve had very similar impacts in yardage and touchdowns. That said, having watched both of them play multiple times, I felt Harvin was a much more integral part of the Vikings offense. They relied on him for crucial third down plays and he was frequently the weapon that Vikings opponents had difficulty designing a defense for. Wells, on the other hand, was more of a complementary weapon. Opponents focused on Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and the rest of the passing game, and Wells made them pay for it when given the ball.

I believe that Wells could be a top 10 running back in the NFL within a few years, but Percy Harvin is the Sports Opinionated Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Defensive Rookie of the Year
In my mind, there were really only two possible winners here, Jairus Byrd or Brian Cushing. I included Brian Orakpo just because so many people are raving about him although Clay Matthews has almost identical stats to Orakpo, with a few extra fumble recoveries and a game-changing touchdown.

By the numbers, you can see the biggest differences between Cushing and Byrd.

Byrd does one thing extremely well, defend in the passing game. He was tops among rookies with 20 passes defensed and top in the NFL with 9 INTs. He’s had an absolutely fantastic season and the Bills have a keeper at the free safety spot.

That said, I don’t believe he’s had the same impact that Cushing has. Cushing is a more versatile defender who is harder to gameplan against because it’s tough to predict what role he will be playing on a given snap. He is equally adept at rushing the passer, dropping into coverage or chasing down a ball carrier, and his stats show it.

Cushing is first among rookies in total tackles, 3rd in sacks, 4th in passes defensed and 2nd in interceptions. Rarely do we see a player this well rounded, especially as a rookie. Watching him play, I believe he has the chance to be one of the most well rounded defenders in the league in the next few years.

The Sports Opinionated Defensive Rookie of the Year is Brian Cushing.

Many of the stats in this post are derived from the publicly available and premium database statistics at FootballOutsiders.com, NFL.com and ColdHardFootballFacts.com

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