This week in the NFL Deep Outs post, Marty mentioned that Frank Gore is being under-used given his talent and performance in the past. I thought I’d explore the topic with some “Choice” analysis on the performance of the 49ers offense as a whole in order to find some clue as to Gore’s reduced role.
All analysis was done using Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) which is Football Outsiders measure of effectiveness per play, compared to the average team or average player.
Overall, San Francisco is not a very good offensive team. They rank 21st in the league with a-7.1% DVOA, while the passing attack achieved a 1.3% and the rushing attack at -5.8%. The passing attack is slightly above average and the rushing attack is slightly below average, so let’s examine the individuals and units within that offense.
While Gore’s yards-per-carry looks impressive, he has a rather poor DVOA. By further examining his individual game stats, it’s easy to see that he has been very boom or bust this season. He had a pair of 80-yard TD runs in week 2 (which I saw live), but otherwise he had 47 yards on 14 carries, which is barely over 3 yards per carry. However, Gore has been very good as a receiver out of the backfield and could match his career high.
Obviously, the running back isn’t entirely responsible for the rushing attack and the offensive line has a very big influence. Unfortunately for poor Mike Singletary, his o-line is pitiful. They have the worst Adjusted Line Yards in the league and are “Stuffed” on 24% of all runs. This is likely the biggest reason that Gore isn’t getting many carries.
Any Niners fan will remember that there was a pretty big offensive shift in Week 7. At halftime, Singletary pulled Shaun Hill at quarterback and inserted former first overall pick, Alex Smith. Smith orchestrated three touchdown drives in the second half and earned himself the starting quarterback job. Week 7 also marked the first game of Michael Crabtree.
The table below shows the difference in San Francisco’s offense before and after this critical game.
Since the changes in personnel and strategy, the offense has made a massive improvement, even in the running game. Most likely, the threat of a credible passing game has forced opponents to back off the line of scrimmage and opened running lanes.
San Francisco has definitely made a switch in the look of the offense as well. They have run significantly more plays from the shotgun formation given that Alex Smith feels more comfortable in this setup than taking snaps from center. Has it helped?
Looking at the breakdown above, the 49ers passing game is well below average when the snaps are taken under center and significantly better than average when passing out of the shotgun. The switch appears to have made an impact.
In the end, the statistics tell us that while Gore’s role as a rusher in the 49ers offense has diminished, the offense as a whole is much more effective. Given Gore’s success in the past, it’s probably safe to assume that there is still room for him to play a prominent part in an improving squad.
Follow Up to Last Week’s Analysis
I would like to thank Jason Campbell for helping me prove my point in last week’s analysis of his career so far. He posted the best DYAR (an indicator of total value) for a QB in week 13, versus the league’s best pass defense going into the game.
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