With one week under our belts, it doesn’t look like anyone on the Sports Opinionated staff knew their stuff. We were a collective 4-8 while our moms went 2-10.
Personally, I felt a little like Alan Garner (Zach Galifinakis’ character) on The Hangover, lost and throwing out comments that had no relevance whatsoever. In honor of my man Alan, I’ll be relating each of my picks this week to one of his lines from the movie.
On another note, Marty is currently losing to his mom. I’m sure he’d like us to gloss over that point, but I can’t mention it enough. MARTY IS LOSING TO HIS MOM. Never mind that that I’m also losing to Norma, let’s just focus on the fact that I’m beating my own mother…yeah, that’s better.
Arizona @ New Orleans -7
Ryan’s Perspective
“You probably get this a lot. This isn’t the real Caesar’s Palace is it?”
The real question for this game is, have we seen the real Saints the last few weeks. Through the first 11 games of the season, the Saints were the most unstoppable force in the NFL. Over the final 5 games, teams kept it close by running the ball and limiting big plays to the Saints passing game. Last week, it didn’t look like the Cardinals specialized in limiting big passing plays.
The Saints have the best offense of any team in the playoffs. The have the most efficient (#1 in DVOA) running offense in the NFL, and the 5th best passing attack. It’s hard to take something away from them. They also have a decent pass defense that creates turn-overs.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, were a middle of the pack team until last week when Kurt Warner put up one of the best quarterback performances in NFL history. The chances of him repeating that performance aren’t great.
I’ll take the Saints despite giving up 7 points.
Pete’s Perspective
Can you believe Kurt Warner threw more touchdown passes (5) versus the Packer defense (and Charles Woodson) than he threw incomplete (4)? Crazy. The Cardinals are coming into New Orleans on a high note while New Orleans is limping into their playoff match with a 3 game losing streak. After having an up and down year and experiencing some injuries, New Orleans’ blitzing defense should now have had adequate time to prepare. You have to worry about the Cardinals having spent all their emotions in last week’s memorable wild card game.
All this being said, I would treat this match up more as a toss up as New Orleans has been rather cold during the latter half of the season and the Cardinals seem to be going on a hot streak and I’ve witnessed this last year when they went to the Super Bowl.
This spread is too great to pass up.
I will take the Cardinals and the 7 points.
Marty’s Perspective
By far the hardest game of the week to pick. I love the Saints at home, coming off the bye. I still think Drew Brees is the best QB in football, and thier set of WRs is unstoppable. But hate the fact that they played like a bunch of blind midgets for the 3 weeks prior to the bye is weighing heavily in my head. When it comes to playoff coaches, I have to take the Whiz over Sean Payton. The final deciding factor for me was the fact that I made a statement last week that has stuck in my head: ‘Never bet against Kurt Warner in the playoffs’. I think I have to follow those sentiments.
THE PICK: Cards +7
The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – I’ll take the Cardinals because they’re an animal.
Maria – I pick the Cardinals over the Saints (Just a feeling they could be the upset)
Norma – NO has been running on a winning bubble, and they wear black…black is not good. I’ll take the Cardinals. How many points can they lose by?
Baltimore @ Indianapolis -6.5
Ryan’s Perspective
“Hey guys, when’s the next Haley’s comet?”
Alan didn’t want to miss Haley’s comet because it rarely comes around. You know what else rarely happens? Winning a playoff game on the road when your quarterback throws for only 34 yards. Trust me, unless Flacco steps it up, repeating last week’s success will be very difficult for the Ravens.
Statistically, the Ravens defense (5th in DVOA) matches up well with Indy’s offense (9th) and their rushing offense (4th) should gain a lot of ground against a weak Colts rushing defense (20th). I just can’t see Flacco having the time to throw with Freeney and Mathis healthy, especially given his mysterious injury status. Whether it’s his hip, quad or knee, it all limits his mobility. The Colts will stack the line and hope the Ravens try to pass. They’ve shown it in past playoff games against KC and Denver. Once the Colts take a lead, the Ravens are in big trouble.
And the Colts, have the 4th Quarter Assassin, Peyton Manning himself. You can’t measure that with stats.
The Colts will win this game, it’s just a matter of the spread. I’ll take the Colts despite giving up 6.5 points.
Pete’s Perspective
The Ravens are peaking at the right time. Their running game was virtually unstoppable last week and their defense is finally coming to form after a mediocre season. The Colts were led by (my) MVP Peyton Manning and despite lack of a running game and a below average defense, almost ran the table until their (rookie) head coach decided to kill all their momentum and bench his starters. Ravens are hot, the Colts are not. These teams met earlier in week 11 where the Colts beat the Ravens by 2. Week 11, the Ravens defense wasn’t playing well and Ray Rice wasn’t as dominating. Those facts have since changed. Jim Caldwell single-handedly killed any momentum the Colts had and the Ravens are playing their best ball of the season.
Although I think Peyton and the Colts can win this game, I believe it will be closer than the spread.
I’ll take the Ravens and the 6.5 points.
Marty’s Perspective
This is the easiest pick of the weekend for me (which probably means I will lose it), but the Ravens are coming off a big win, meaning they are getting more respect than they should. The Colts have just had a bye, and have proven that when they have their entire team on the field they are just a better team.
WHAT SCARES ME: Last time these teams played, the Ravens kicked 6FGs, and hit 5. That means they were NOT capitalizing on their redzone opportunities. If they can do that this time, it’s going to be Baltimore’s game.
THE PICK: Colts -6.5
The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – I’ll take Baltimore because I know you like the Colts.
Maria – I pick the Colts over the Ravens (You know why – that’s right –Ryan’s favourite team and Payton Manning)
Norma: This is a given. Colts. Cause I like horses better than birds. Especially black birds.
Marty: ‘Its not about Manning, Flacco, or Rice?’
Norma: ‘Who are they? Does Rice run? ‘
Marty: ‘Yes, Rice runs.’
Norma: ‘So he is a reciever?’
Dallas @ Minnesota – 2.5
Ryan’s Perspective
“It’s not illegal, it’s frowned upon, like masturbating on an airplane.”
Alan was talking about counting cards. I’m talking about having Adrian Peterson on your roster and having the 23rd most efficient rushing attack in the NFL. The Vikings are in love with Brett Favre, just like every TV announcer. That man-crush is going to cost them a playoff game, if they keep ignoring one of the best offensive players in the NFL.
The Vikings have to face the most dangerous team in the NFL right now, and they’ve spent all season forgetting about their best weapon. Favre has given the Vikes another facet to the offense, and their passing game (4th) has been great, but they’ve forgotten how to run the ball. Against Dallas’ pass-rushing trio of DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff, the Vikings are going to get Favre killed.
The Cowboys offense, however, shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball through the air, as their 3rd most efficient passing offense faces a Vikings defense ranked 22nd.
This will be a close game, but I’ll take the Cowboys and the 2.5 points.
Pete’s Perspective
For the past 6 years I’ve looked at the Cowboys and thought that if they could ever get hot in the playoff (and survive their tough division) they would be a force. Is the year they play up to their expectations and potential? Their offense has been good all year and their defense is now playing as well as they should with their big lineman able to pressure the quarterback and stuff the run equally effective. Since their victory in New Orleans, they seem to be playing with more confidence, especially on defense.
The Vikings pass defense is lacking and will have a tough time keeping up with Austin, Williams and Witten. The cocaine-fuelled, mullet-haired freak-a-zoid that is Jared Allen will have to have a big game to get Romo to throw some hurried passes and make some mistakes.
I will look for Allen to single-handedly make people question Romo’s ability in the playoffs (once again…) and with a rested Favre and Peterson able to control possession. This game could go down to the wire and I still have images of Favre’s TD pass to Greg Lewis to win the game vs. the 49er’s. I just can’t bet against that image (at least not this week).
I’ll take the Vikings and give the 2.5 points.
Marty’s Perspective
Once again, another coin flip, but there were 3 things that pointed me to my eventual pick:
1) The location: Being at the HHH Metrodome is a large advantage to the Vikes
2) The Bye: Having that week off is under-estimated
3) The Win: The cowboys were celebrating their first playoff victory since 1996 like it was the Superbowl. It’s now time for a slight letdown as they will slide back into Wade Phillips Playoff Football.
THE PICK: Vikings -2.5
Sidenote: Based on the 4 coaches left in the NFC (Phillips, Peyton, Childress, Whizenhunt), you have to like the Cardinals chances of getting back to the Super Bowl.
The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – like I said last week, I hate Dallas. I’ll take the Vikings.
Maria – I pick the Viking over the Cowboys (They haven’t lost a game at home & they are Garry’s favourite team)
Norma – It’s going to be a really good game, because they both have good offensive lines, and I love Favre. He is an excellent QB, but the cowboys will tie him down, so I am taking the Cowboys. This one is really a tossup.
New York Jets @ San Diego – 7.5
Ryan’s Perspective
“Okay, well maybe we should tell that to Rain Man, because he practically bankrupted a casino, and he was a ri-tard.”
Alan was sure he could count cards and break a casino, despite the odds being stacked against him. The Jets are in a similar predicament.
The NFL history books say you don’t make a run to the Superbowl with a rookie quarterback. The Jets believe their defense (#1 in DVOA) and running game (11th), can overcome their poor passing game (28th).
The Chargers are the Bizarro Jets. They have the best passing offense in the league by a huge margin and are miserable in every other facet of the game. That juggernaut aerial attack has put them on an 11 game win streak though.
“Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Darrelle Revis” Warren Sapp on the Dan Patrick show.
Sapp had it right, Revis is simply the best cover corner in the game. He can eliminate any receiver. Unfortunately for the Jets, the Chargers spread the ball around really well, without depending on one marquee player. Also, San Diego’s offensive line had the 5th best sack rate in the NFL, meaning Rivers will have plenty of time to find a target.
Once the Chargers get ahead, they’ll force The Sanchize to throw a crippling pick-six or two. I’ll take the Chargers despite giving up 7.5 points.
Pete’s Perspective
The Chargers are the hottest team in football, so I am told. They were undefeated in their last eleven games. They have a great quarterback who spreads the ball and throws an accurate deep ball. Their defense makes plays when it needs to. With that being said, I am still puzzled why I am being forced to believe that they are the best football team in the league whenever I read popular sports media or listen to the experts on the radio. Yes, winning eleven games in a row is a great accomplishment however their schedule was terribly easy during that time, beating teams like the Oakland, Kansas City (twice) and Washington. I seem like I am the only football fan that is not sold on the Chargers just yet. I can’t stop thinking that their passing attack (focused on 2 players: Jackson and Gates) and that 11 game run has people fooled.
The Jets, on the other hand, are built like a playoff team, with one exception. Their defense ranked number one and is the best versus the pass. Their running game is the most productive in the league and allows them to control possession. The exception being their rookie quarterback. As many people can’t bet on a rookie quarterback in the playoffs, I can if he plays behind the best offensive line in the league, plays with the best rushing attack and has the top ranked defense. Sanchez hasn’t been the problem on offense so far anyway. It’s been stone-hands Edwards. If Braylon’s hands did half as much as he’s mouth does he wouldn’t be among the leaders in drops. He’s drops this year have been so terrible; they made Randy Moss’s drops look like Moss was trying to catch those balls vs. Carolina. Sanchez will have to figure out that he is better off aiming to get the ball stuck in Edwards’ facemask than hitting him in the numbers.
I’ll take the J—E—T—S, JETS, JETS, JETS, JETS and the 7.5 points.
Marty’s Perspective
Bah! A 2nd week of a rookie QB going on the road (this time across the country) to face a good team in the playoffs. It’s against a team that has won 11 in a row, that has one of the hottest QBs in football. BUT! The Jets strength is with the run (1st in the NFL during regular season), and the Chargers are susceptible (20th in the NFL in rushing defence). The Jets are good AGAINST the pass (2nd), and give up the run (8th). The chargers are a passing team (5th), and can’t run the ball worth a S##T (31st)! I think the Chargers pull it out, but it will be much closer than the 7.5 points.
THE PICK: JETS +7.5
The Mom’s Perspective
Kim – I’ll take the Jets because it reminds me of the Jetsons!
Maria – I pick the Chargers over the Jets (I like their uniforms and they have a pretty good offence. OK maybe this will be just a guess.)
Norma – I like Sanchez…he is an excellent rookie QB. I have never seen a chargers game, but I have to go with the Chargers because everyone else is going with the Chargers.
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Final Words
Here is a summary of our picks
Have a beer, have some nachos, enjoy the games, and in the immortal words of Alan Garner….
“Hey, you guys ready to let the dogs out?”
Many of the stats in this article are derived from the publicly available and premium database statistics at FootballOutsiders.com, NFL.com and ColdHardFootballFacts.com
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