At this time of year, we all seem to constantly refresh our screens, search twitter or leave the TV on NFL Network to find out which free agents have landed with each team and how much money they got. Inevitably we get into arguments about whether certain players were worth the money or not.
Marty and I did exactly that on the Ultimate Football Talk podcast earlier this week.
The real question that surrounds free agency and any other economic transaction for that matter is whether there was value for the money spent. This is especially important in sports where a salary cap is in order or the team has limited funds. Obviously Daniel Snyder and the Steinbrenner’s don’t seem to worry about it, but most other owners would.
I first addressed the concept, albeit very lightly, back in November in an article about Bob Sanders. Given all the hyped-up news about NFL free agency signings, I thought I’d outline a simple method for evaluating free agents based on how well spent the money was.
For starters, I’m not comparing this year’s free agents to those of year’s past. Each year brings a new market price for different positions based on availability, cap growth and the number of teams in the hunt. Because of this volatility, I’ll just evaluate a few players from each position against each other.
And obviously a player’s past performance isn’t a perfect indicator of his future performance, especially when he’s moving to a new team with a new scheme.
I’ve attempted to provide a framework for evaluating the dollars spent on defensive players by deciding how much money each player was given per tackle and per “big play”. Big plays constitute the sum of sacks, interceptions and forced fumbles by that player.
While these metrics obviously don’t describe everything about a player or include details like the “Tackle Factor” over at Advanced NFL Stats, they will give us a decent indicator of how efficiently GMs have spent their money so far this offseason.
So given that rambling cover-my-ass statement, let’s take a look at some of the key defensive signings so far this offseason.
Cornerback
The NFL has become a passer’s league. And because of this trend, the focus on pass defence has also become heightened. The cornerback crop this year was headed by Dunta Robinson.
While Robinson may have been the player that drew the most attention, the stats say that maybe he didn’t deserve ALL the praise. Obviously for cornerbacks, if they’re good in coverage, they’ll see less passes come their way, and therefore less opportunities to make interceptions, tackles and other big plays.
What’s really telling, however, is how great the Jets deal was for Antonio Cromartie. The Jets gave up a 3rd round pick that could become a 2nd rounder if Cromartie reaches certain milestones this year. In return they get a very good cover corner at an incredibly reasonable rate for the final year of his contract. His cost per big play and cost per tackle are considerably lower than the top free agents at his position.
Safety
With Antrel Rolle signing a ridiculously expensive deal with the Giants, I wanted to see how the contracts of a few other free agent safeties compared.
On the surface, it looks like the Cardinals made a great swap by allowing Rolle to leave and acquiring Rhodes, even if it did cost 4th and 7th round picks. They saved a bit of money and got a player with 58% more “big plays” per game over the course of his career. The trouble with Rhodes was obviously that he fell out of favor with the Jets and his production has dipped the last couple years. On the bright side, in Arizona he’ll be reunited with Donnie Henderson, who helped him perform so well in his early years with the Jets.
Ryan Clark has a much more cap-friendly deal than either one, but it is more efficient in terms of tackles than big plays. That will suit the Steelers just fine with Troy Polamalu alongside him.
In both respects, it looks like the money thrown at Rolle was just Jerry Reese trying to “make it rain”.
Linebackers
Karlos Dansby was clearly the prize of the linebacker class this year but I liked the Browns pickup of Scott Fujita from the Saints. Take a look.
While Dansby is clearly the more productive player, the Browns got Fujita’s production at a fairly similar rate for big plays and an extremely efficient rate for tackles. On top of that, Fujita has a great reputation as a leader and has just come from a winning franchise. Sometimes these are the cap-friendly deals that help teams turn it around.
Defensive Ends
Julius Peppers has as much physical talent at the DE position as anyone since Reggie White. The Chicago Bears felt it was worth an average of over $15 million per year.
Looking at the numbers, and even comparing to other positions, it’s easy to see that Peppers’ rate of big plays is better than anyone else we looked at and he plays at a premium position for a pass-happy league.
That said, Kampman’s contract with the Jags is considerably more efficient. He obviously has more of an injury history than Peppers, but none of the questions about his effort. If the Jags can use the rest of their cap money wisely, they could conceivably bolster 1 or 2 other positions with the same money the Bears used on Peppers.
Wrap-up
The concept of cap efficiency isn’t new to anyone, but I think it’s valuable to revisit given the limited resources available to NFL franchises and the high injury rate in the sport.
Teams not only have to hunt for franchise players and difference-makers, but they need to build quality depth. This can only be done by using the cap wisely.
I’d rather have Cromartie, Fujita and Kampman than just Peppers if I were a GM.
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