Here is the latest analysis I wrote for the great team at Puck Prospectus. Feel free to read it over there with this link or continue reading below.
The reason I wanted to explore the contract value was the initial reaction so many people had to the dollar figure. I personally felt it was WAY too much at first, but have come around to believing it was a Kesler-level deal, which is decent, but not over the top either. Enjoy.
In a league that just saw Nathan Horton and Dustin Byfuglien traded while Henrik Sedin improbably won the Hart Trophy, we bring you something much more intriguing on Front Office Focus- the contract given to Tomas Plekanec.
Okay, so the trades are pretty darn interesting too, but the Plekanec contract gives fans and front offices a lot to think about. This is essentially the money Les Habitants saved in the Halak deal and represents the only real cap room they have to play with outside of Carey Price’s long-term deal.
TSN reported that “The stocky centre opted to forego unrestricted free agency to sign a US $30 million six-year contract on Tuesday. He will make $5 million each year of the deal, which includes a no-trade clause.”
While Plekanec had a great year and a very strong performance in Montreal’s playoff run, does he deserve $5M per year?
If I told you that Plekanec would be making similar money to the following players, would you say he’s worth it? Here’s the list with their current cap hit, courtesy of CapGeek.
Player Cap Hit Brian Gionta $5.0M Ryan Getzlaf $5.3M Marc Savard $4.0M Damond Langkow $4.5M Patrick Sharp $3.9M Mike Ribeiro $5.0M Brendan Morrow $4.1M Daniel Alfredsson $4.9M Mike Fisher $4.2M Mike Richards $5.8M Shane Doan $4.6M Phil Kessel $5.4M Ryan Kesler $5.0M
Surprisingly, Plekanec had a better GVT (14.6) in 2009-10 than nine of the thirteen players on that list. Using this very basic comparison, it could be concluded that Plekanec’s deal is in a reasonable range. That said, we might want to look at a few more metrics. No one buys a car based purely on consumer rating and price, they want to know about mileage, safety features, navigation systems, and so on. In the same vein of thought, we need to look at some of the underlying statistics for Plekanec’s performance before we decide if he got an efficient deal.
These six players appeared to be the closest, and most interesting, comparisons to Plekanec based on GVT and cap hit.
Gionta was chosen because he and Plekanec play in the same system and with the same teammates. Getzlaf is considered an elite player, but on the surface appears to have a similar contract value. Sharp’s contract was the most efficient of the group selected. Richards was a player with a similarly deep playoff run. Kessel and Kesler are both considered elite young talent, so they provide another angle of comparison.
Looking at the table, it’s easy to see that Plekanec represents the 3rd-best GVT-per-$M of the group. He produced the second most points in the group but alarmingly was subpar in the Corsi department. That would be easy to blame on Montreal’s defense-first and counter-attack system, but the Corsi gap with Gionta is better explained by the massive gap in Zone Starts.
While Plekanec’s contract appears favorable using only last year’s performance as a guide, it would be a mistake to focus on what was a career year for him.
I’ve further narrowed the group down to comparable players, but focused on their performance over the least 3 years.
Once we include data from the last 3 seasons, the picture becomes a little more clear. Plekanec’s contract definitely seems favorable to that of his teammate, Gionta. He is younger and has outperformed him in every category except Corsi, but Zone Starts explain that to some degree.
It becomes very apparent that Richards had an off year in 2009-10 and that Plekanec is not the same quality of player, especially when Richards’ negative zone starts are considered.
Ryan Kesler is likely the best contractual comparison for Plekanec at this point. I would say that Kesler is a slightly better value, given his huge Corsi advantage and the fact that Kesler has more defensive duties as indicated by Zone Starts.
When it was first announced, I wondered if Plekanec’s deal was a little too generous, but there are obvious comparables in the league. The 6-year length is too long in my mind, and the no-trade clause is a bit extravagant for a top 6, but non-elite forward. That said, Plekanec was due to be an unrestricted free agent, so the Canadiens didn’t have the leverage they would have liked. It’s not a mistake by Montreal, but it’s not a steal either.
The real question will be who else they use to fill out the roster with roughly eight spots to fill and only $9 million to spend.
No related posts.
Also wanted to say thanks to Olivier Bouchard over at “En Attendent les Nordiques” for catching an error about Zone starts which I have now corrected.
If you speak French, check out his blog here http://enattendantlesnordiques.blogspot.com/
Otherwise he has written at BehindTheNetHockey.com a few times, so look for his work there.
I do wonder how much a team affects individual player’s Corsi. Montreal is a freaking Corsi blackhole. Even Gomez and Gionta, usually champs, took massive drops in Corsi just by joining the Habs with Gomez especially staying barely above water. I think Gionta’s Corsi may be higher than Plekanec’s partly because he was hurt and avoided some of the Habs’ worst Corsi periods (playing with Gomez, aka Captain Corsi, also helps I bet).
Plekanec was given the toughest assignments at center this season, facing both tough opposition and defensive zone starts, and he and Gomez were the Habs’ primary handlers of tough sledding. He’s also been a good 5-on-5 producer on a team that has had systemic issues at 5-on-5 for years.
I wasn’t surprised by the 5 million price tag… it was bang on what I expected, but then I’d been looking at Pleky’s match-ups and assignments all season long.
The Habs system definitely doesn’t seem to focus on outshooting their opponent. As a team they were -4.1 shots per 60 minutes when 5v5.
Gionta (4.01)was Montreal’s best Corsi forward, with Gomez (1.54) in 3rd. The only other forward in the positive was Gregory Stewart, and he only played 5 games!
As for the strength of the players they faced, Plekanec’s Corsi QoC was 0.739 while Gionta’s was 0.544 and Gomez’ was 0.863. In that case, Gomez actually saw the toughest competition of the three, but Plekanec definitely had tougher matchups than Gionta.
Plekanec was definitely Montreal’s best scorer with 2.07 points per 60 minutes.
I don’t think Gabe’s come up with a perfect QoC metric yet. They’re very indicative, but I’m inclined to give Pleky the “tougher minutes” award based on zone start and on the who-faced-who game-by-game tables on Olivier’s site. It did seem that Gomez may have started with tougher matchups early in the season, and in the latter part they had gone to Plekanec instead. I also, frankly, don’t think NHL coaches allocate matchups on Corsi so much as who they feel is the strongest opponent (by Corsi QoC, for example, Jordan Staal is tougher competition than Evgeny Malkin).
Gomez and Gionta were largely attached at the hip, anyway, so any variation of QoC between them is an artifact of their injury time, though Gionta got double-shifted.
At any rate, Plekanec’s definitely a “tough minutes” center.
Well, not stat is perfect. I’ll trust your judgement on this one, and you’ve got a point about Corsi QoC, but it’s still a decent measure. Either way, thanks for the great discussion.