I did spend some of the downtime taking in the Colts-Patriots and Celtics-Thunder games in Boston though.  Below are some random thoughts from seeing both those games live.  [...] No related posts.]]>

Yes, I realize the last post was November 10th and it was an incoherent rant about Brett Favre.  But honestly, who can be coherent when Favre is involved.

I did spend some of the downtime taking in the Colts-Patriots and Celtics-Thunder games in Boston though.  Below are some random thoughts from seeing both those games live.  This is just my recollection of events, so some stats/times could be a bit off.  I’ll save the accuracy for more thought out columns.

Celtics-Thunder

No sport on the planet displays athletes so close up as the NBA.  We had seats in the 1st row behind one of the baskets and it definitely didn’t disappoint.  I was definitely bummed out that Kevin Durant was scratched right before the game though.

• For starters, Shaq is still a phenomenal spectacle.  He was the most jovial, friendly player in the building during warm-ups and genuinely seemed to love interacting with the fans.  It’s also amazing how much we focussed on the size of his feet.  I couldn’t look away from them.  The difference in his foot size to other players like Kevin Garnett seemed immense. 
• Shaq’s free throw shooting is even more horrific in person than it is on TV.  If you’ve ever had a buddy who is awkward and unathletic, picture him shooting free throws with his eyes closed, that’s what Shaq’s motion seems like.  I felt embarassed FOR him.  It’s even more strange given how athletic he seems to be (for his size of course) during regular play.  Just odd.
• Rondo is a lot smaller than I thought he was, but just unreal to watch.  Bill Simmons raves about him all the time and I definitely thought he was an underrated player, but he’s much more impressive in person.  Incredibly quick and very unpredictable, he had 7 assists early in the first half and a put-back dunk in the 2nd half that had me on my feet before I could think about it.
• Russell Westbrook deserves every bit of praise he’s been getting since the summer.  Without Durant, he still dominated the game.  He directed the offense, dished when he needed to and still took scoring into his own hands whenever they needed it.  Despite being the main focus of the Celts defense, he led the game in scoring and was the sole reason they won on the road against the best team in the East.
• The only player I’ve seen live who appears to score with as little effort as Paul Pierce is Tim Duncan.  The Truth just seems to float around with the ball on a string and has absolutely no trouble finding his own shot.  Just fun to watch.
• Little known fact, referring to Delonte West as Mom-F*cker every time he steps on the court and touches the ball, never gets old.  Ever.

Patriots-Colts

We made the trip to Boston, because I’ve always wanted to see Peyton Manning play live.  I’ve been a Colts fan ever since I started following the NFL religiously (early 90′s) and obviously wanted to see my favorite player in person.  What better way than against their biggest rival of the last decade.

• For starters, Patriots fans are great.  Extremely knowledgeable, incredibly supportive, cheering at all the right times and most of all, giving me sh*t for having a Peyton Manning jersey.  That said, I had some great conversations with a bunch of people around me and they were pretty fun to be around.
• The Colts running game is even more pitiful in person.  I’ve watched 90% of the Colts snaps this year and I already thought it was pitiful.
• Brady is as cool and calm as any pro athlete I’ve ever watched.  Manning gets clearly rattled at times, Brady just doesn’t.  I hate him.  At least people in Boston hate his hair as much as the rest of us.
• I’m now a Danny Woodhead fan.  He’s just impressive to watch.  Any guy who scores the most exciting touchdown of a big game and makes the tackle on the kickoff the next play will always be high in my books.
• Reggie Wayne was the lone focus of defenses trying to stop the Colts.  They know he’s the most dependable option for Manning and were determined to take him out of the game.  The TD pass from Manning to Wayne late in the game was a thing of beauty.  I don’t know how you defend it.
• Pierre Garcon is going to cost the Colts their season if he hasn’t already.  Despite being the most physically gifted receiver the Colts have had in 15 years, he just doesn’t understand the game well enough mentally.  He and Manning are constantly on different pages.  Just look at Mannings second interception, Garcon ran a comeback or an out while Manning expected him to go deep and threw the ball accordingly.
• Despite being down by 17 points, the Pats fans never counted out the Colts and constantly explained this to me with the phrase “It’s Peyton Manning, you’re never out of the game…”
• When the Colts got the ball, down 3, with only a few minutes left, most of the crowd acted as if the Colts had already won.  I’ve never experienced this before.  They may have gotten loud before each snap, but the nerves in the stadium were immense.  When Manning threw the pick and the crowd went nuts, it was more a sense of relief like the end of hurricane than a celebration like you had just won the lottery.  Just strange.

All-in-all, I love Boston as a sports town and would go back in a heartbeat.  Plus, I was very pleasantly surprised with how much Bruins gear I saw in the windows of pubs on people walking around town and even on the local news.  It’s nice to see the NHL still has some true markets in the States, unlike Carolina or Florida.

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In a league as competitively close as the NFL, it’s amazing how many times luck can be the different between a team that appears [...] No related posts.]]>

I’m always amazed when I talk to other NFL fans.  They are either fanatically excited/depressed and usually mention how dominant/pitiful their team is and then tell me their team’s record like this explains everything. 

In a league as competitively close as the NFL, it’s amazing how many times luck can be the different between a team that appears to be good and a team that appears to be firing their coach.  A strange bounce of the ball or the sheer luck of the NFL’s annual scheduling draw can change the fortunes of any team’s season. 

Don’t believe me?  Take a look at the stats of two actual NFL teams below and pick which team has the better record at this point in the 2010 season.

Looking at the breakdown of the two teams, most people would pick Team B.  The Quarterbacks are comparable, their top WR is much better, their O-line and D-lines both have an advantage over Team A but their defense is worse overall, especially against the pass. 

Now what if I told you that Team A is the defending Superbowl champion New Orleans Saints with a 3-2 record and Team B is the perennially underachieving Dallas Cowboys with a 1-3 record? 

Could the Cowboys poor pass defense really be enough of a disadvantage to give them a 2 win disadvantage to the Saints despite outperforming them in nearly every other category? 

This is where some luck (and poor decisions) can factor in.  Take a look at the full table, and pay special attention to the last two categories.

When turnover margin and strength of schedule are considered, it’s very obvious why the Saints have the better record.  They have had the advantage of a much softer schedule that included two teams that are currently 0-5 (SF & Car) and have definitely benefited from a better turnover differential.  The Cowboys, on the other hand have faced 4 teams that all have winning records. 

And before you jump to the conclusion that the Cowboys are more apt to turn the ball over than the Saints, consider that Dallas averages 0.175 turnovers per drive while New Orleans averages 0.158 turnovers per drive, which is only the difference between being 24^th and 19^th in the league at taking care of the ball.  The big difference is that New Orleans defense has generated more turnovers than Dallas last-ranked defense in that category. 

Unfortunately for the Cowboys, their schedule doesn’t get any easier and unless their defense starts defending the pass and creating a few turnovers, they’ll be out of the play-offs before the Thanksgiving Day game. 

As for the Saints, 3 of their next 5 opponents are sub-par, so they could have a nice record despite a less-than-dominant season when they meet the Cowboys on turkey day. 

Either way, the luck of the draw has affected both teams. 

All the statistics in the article are from the public and premium sections of FootballOutsiders.com as well as the Football Outsiders Almanac 2010. 

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“Matt Ryan just doesn’t look good.  Starting to wonder if he’s [...] No related posts.]]>

Like any sports fan, I’m prone to making quick judgments on a player after watching him perform for only a few minutes.  That’s what I did last Sunday while watching Matt Ryan struggle.  I didn’t like what I saw and posted the following on Twitter: 

“Matt Ryan just doesn’t look good.  Starting to wonder if he’s hit a development wall.  With all those weapons – thought he’d be better.” 

More than anything else, I really wanted to know whether Matt Ryan had regressed since his outstanding rookie season.  And if he was regressing, were his fellow 2008 draftees, Joe Flacco and Chad Henne surpassing him?  

Yes, I said Chad Henne in the same breath as Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan, and it’s not as crazy as it sounds.  While his playing career may have effectively started a year later than the other two, he has the best completion percentage and yards per play of the three in 2010. 

Take a look at how the three players stack up after their first two and a quarter years in the NFL.

The blue boxes denote the best of the trio in any given category for that year.  While it’s clear that Matt Ryan is the clubhouse leader at this point, he was second to Flacco in a variety of measures last season and Henne is putting in a shot at the title so far this season. 

The other alarming point for the Falcons is the fact that Ryan’s DVOA has been declining year-over-year, and his net yardage per play is significantly below what he achieved as a rookie.  That said, the Falcons rush offense has lost some of it’s effectiveness over the last two seasons, putting more focus on Ryan and the passing game. 

More positively, however, is that Ryan’s TD-to-INT ratio has steadily improved, showing improvement in critical decision-making. 

For the Dolphins, this is probably the best news they could get.  With an already strong rushing attack, their 3^rd year QB in his second year as a starter is performing comparably to the 3^rd and 18^th overall picks in the same draft. 

So while Matt Ryan is still the class of the 08 draft at quarterback, Flacco and Henne aren’t that far behind.  Maybe the Buffalo Bills were hoping this bit of draft magic had rubbed off when they acquired Brian Brohm from the Packers.  After all, he was taken one pick ahead of Chad Henne. 

Many of the stats in this post are derived from the publicly available and premium database statistics at FootballOutsiders.com and NFL.com.

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That said, the Texans’ Arian Foster did obliterate the Colts rushing defense and has [...] No related posts.]]>

At this point in the NFL season, it’s always fun to stretch our projections a little.  Did you know that Peyton Manning is on pace for 6,928 passing yards this season?  Arian Foster is on pace for 3,696 yards rushing, CJ who?

That said, the Texans’ Arian Foster did obliterate the Colts rushing defense and has the majority of us wondering just how good he really is.  Could he be the next great back to come out of the Shanahan-designed, one-cut, downhill running scheme?  Coach Kubiak is definitely hoping so.  Then again, could he be a flash in the pan?

In my mind, the running game gets split into 3 basic factors: the offensive line, the opposition’s front seven and the running back himself.  Below, I’m going to show some statistics that outline all 3 factors going into Sunday’s game, if you need an explanation of any of the stats, just click here.

The Texans Offensive Line 

The Texans O-line has been a solid, yet unspectacular unit to most.  That said, they’ve actually ranked quite well in a statistic that Football Outsiders calls Adjusted Line Yards.  Here’s how they’ve ranked the last 3 seasons:

2009  4.10 Rank = 15^th

2008  4.19 Rank = 10^th

2007  4.30 Rank = 8^th

So while the offensive line’s effect may be diminishing slightly in recent years, they are still a better-than-average run blocking unit.  Also, the 2009 ranking can partially be attributed to some major injuries to both starters at guard.

The Colts Defensive Front 7 

There aren’t even many casual fans that would mistake the Colts defense for being stout against the run.  Most of the time they look more like a basketball player taking a charge.  The Tampa-2 philosophy of using undersized, but penetrating linemen can be great on the pass-rush, but is definitely susceptible to a power running game.

Take a look at the Colts Adjusted Line Yards on defense for the past 3 seasons:

2009  4.53 Rank = 29^th

2008  4.25 Rank = 21^st

2007  3.92 Rank = 11^th

Obviously the Texans were facing a run defense in steady decline and without any noticeable reinforcements this offseason.  The defensive line’s weakness coupled with a decent offensive line, obviously put Foster in a favorable light.

Arian Foster 

Any information that we have on running backs includes their own performance as well as the two units we mentioned above.  That said, Foster posted a DVOA of 24.8% last year on 77 carries and averaged 4.8 yards per carry while racking up a success rate of 59% on his runs.

To put that in comparison, Pierre Thomas had a DVOA of 26.2% to lead all regular NFL ball carriers and averaged 5.4 yards per carry with a 56% success rate.  Foster clearly made his mark last year when given the chance.  That said, similar rates were recorded by Kevin Faulk, Reggie Bush, Leonard Weaver and Tashard Choice in limited action last year.  No one is crowning any of those 4 backs as the next great one.

Video Proof 

So what do you get when you combine a decent O-line matched up against a terrible run-stopping D-line and a fairly dynamic running back?  Take a look for yourself (and if the embedded video doesn’t work, click this link).

Check out the following points in the video:

• 1:00 minute mark of the video.  Foster runs almost 15 yards before
• 1:30 – Foster scores a TD an isn’t challenged until into the endzone
• 1:55 – Foster makes 1 cut and isn’t touched for 42 yards
• 2:05 – Foster makes another nice cut and isn’t touched for 23 yards
• 2:44 – Foster runs an 8 yard TD without being touched 

Foster’s vision and ability to make the backside cut is fantastic.  That said, he owes his offensive line a lunch at Foody Goody for the masterful job they did pushing every Colts defender out of his path. 

The O-line gave him big lanes, but he also used decisive running and good angles on the DBs to turn the runs into big gains. 

The Verdict 

The biggest problem with projecting Foster’s impact is the limited time we’ve seen him in an NFL offense.  77 carries last season and 33 in Week 1 this year don’t provide a very big sample size for his talent.  There is every reason to believe he could be the feature back the Texans have been craving. However, we’ll probably have a better picture once we see him face more stout run defenses from Washington in Week 2, Dallas in Week 3, Oakland in Week 4 and the Giants in Week 5.  All were in the top half of the league in Defensive ALY last season. 

I believe Foster is the real deal, but let’s see him prove it against better competition before crowning him.

All the statistics in the article are from the public and premium sections of FootballOutsiders.com as well as the Football Outsiders Almanac 2010. 

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