My goal when I started was to write 2-3 posts per week on anything that I was passionate about and to [...] No related posts.]]>

Exactly one year ago, I decided to start the Sports Opinionated blog over on Blogger.com.  The goal was to give myself a creative outlet to express my many views on sports, whether misguided or fact-based. 

My goal when I started was to write 2-3 posts per week on anything that I was passionate about and to keep it up for at least a year.  That way, I could find my writing niche and ensure I still liked writing after committing to it for that long.  Obviously I wanted to pick up some readers and contacts with other writers along the way, which has turned out better than I had hoped for.

We didn’t exactly celebrate with cake and champagne here at S-O headquarters (aka my house) but we did hit up a beer and barbeque some sausage, which is much more appropriate anyway.

At this point, I can honestly say that writing about sports is something that feels natural to me.  Maybe it’s because I’m just a loud-mouthed former jock who needs to feel like a couch-GM or possibly I’m such a sports-obsessed fan that it further fuels my biggest hobby.  It’s probably both.

Regardless, I can say at this point that writing about hockey, football and soccer are all in my wheelhouse and I’ll definitely keep it up.  That said, there may be a few changes coming here at S-O to help the readers find only the genre of sports they like most, since I realize that it’s a bit of a scattered approach right now.

At the end of this post, I’ve listed my favorite articles from each month the blog has been running.  Hopefully you enjoy reading them as much as I liked writing them.

I also wanted to thank a couple people that have really helped me out in the last year.

Peter Aiello – an author on S-O at times and my co-caster on the Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer podcast.  He’s also the guy I text back and forth with on every major sporting event and helps shape a lot of my sports opinions for better or worse.  Plus, he’s great at ranting, just tune in to the podcast to hear!

Timo Seppa – an author on Puck Prospectus who has personally helped me with articles, understanding hockey stats and has given me some great recommendations to help get my work seen.  Thanks for all the help Timo, especially since our correspondence started just by me liking one of your articles, and emailing you out of the blue.  Timo also has his own blog called Ice Hockey Metrics.

Giancarlo Rinaldi - another established writer who has helped me out and been open to new, less-established contacts.  Giancarlo writes for Football Italia and has his own blog as well.  Hopefully we can have him on as a guest podcaster soon.

Andrew Rothstein - the main editor over at Puck Prospectus.  He was kind enough to accept Timo’s advice and let me post on PP.  He’s let me pick my own topics and has thankfully published everything I’ve sent his way.  Puck Prospectus is the hockey site I most wanted to write for from Day 1 and now I’m getting the chance, which is absolutely awesome.

Gabe Desjardins - runs the statistical hockey blog Behind The Net.  Gabe has been kind enough to answer every email I’ve ever thrown his way about some of the stats tables on BehindTheNet.ca and even posted one of my articles (about Nicklas Backstrom’s contract) on his main blog several months ago.

FOF Crew – The team of guys over at Front Office Fans and Project Franchise has been really fun for me.  I love that they’re trying to get a fan-owned team and support them all the way.  They have a great group of authors and Grant Cohen was gracious enough to let me write over at FOF, even if I haven’t posted much lately.  I better get my butt in gear!

Marty Borotsik - Marty has been a fantastic NFL author hear on S-O and co-hosts the Ultimate Football Talk podcast covering all kinds of NFL-related subjects.  He’s let me join a few times which has been a blast.

My Favorite Articles from the past year on S-O

July 2009 – Part 1 of my NFL Season Preview Series

August 2009 – Part 3 of my NFL Season Preview Series (go ahead, laugh at some of those predictions) and a post about why I’m a soccer fan

September 2009 – My thoughts on the NFL’s Wildcat Offense and also a premature rant about Ronaldinho’s Demise

October 2009 – Liverpool’s use of a 3-man defense and one of my weekly NFL posts.

November 2009 - I thought the Colts should Cut Bob Sanders , Pete writes about Placenta Cures and my post about Thierry Henry’s Hand Ball that knocked Ireland out of the World Cup.

December 2009 – Jason Campbell Love, Frank Gore, NFL Rookie-of-the-Year picks and When Hockey Season Starts for me as a fan.

January 2010 -  Marty wrote a great column about the Phaneuf Trade and I wrote a letter to Jim Caldwell and we kicked off the Dignity Bowl where me, Pete and Marty picked NFL games vs our moms….

February 2010 – My Superbowl Analysis, a rant about “O Canada” and The IOC Being Sexist.

March 2010 – Hockey Gold for Canada and a Statistical Look at the Calgary Flames

April 2010 – Did the Caps Choke or the Habs Step It Up, an in-depth look at Darryl Sutter as Flames GM and Inter Milan’s importance to Italian Soccer

May 2010 – My stat on Attack Rate for Soccer Players, a Tribute to An Italian World Cup Hero and my evaluation of Nicklas Backstrom’s contract extension

June 2010 – My praise for Tim Howard in USA vs Algeria,  my (eventually correct) point that Defoe was better than Heskey for England, Tomas Plekanec’s contract and The Most Intriguing NHL Free Agents

July 2010 – Flames Free Agent Moves and The Potential Departure of Ronaldinho from Milan

Keep visiting and definitely let me know if there are topics you’d like me to write about, suggestions for changes to the site or any other correspondence.  Just email me Ryan@Sports-Opinionated.com or leave a comment on this post.

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For 21 million Euros, he brought two seasons [...] No related posts.]]>

It’s only been a few short seasons since Ronaldinho’s over-hyped arrival at Milan.  He arrived with a lot of fanfare at a club that needed to sell tickets and jerseys. He was brought in as much for his fame as his talent, which had been dwindling at Barcelona.

For 21 million Euros, he brought two seasons of his huge grin and fancy footwork, along with vision and passing.  In his first season, he was largely ineffective playing with Kaka, and in his second he led the offense, although only at his pace.

When we examined his attacking impact at the end of the season, it actually surprised me how effective he was.  After all, I was the same guy who skewered him after only a couple games last season.  The difference was that he became more of a playmaker spraying passes to Pato on the far side and crosses to anyone he could find in the box.

Ronaldinho is an entertaining player who genuinely seems happy to be playing and definitely gives everything he has, as long as it’s in the offensive end.  That said, he’s not a good fit for the new Allegri-run Diavolo, and that’s why Milan is considering letting him leave to Flamengo.

Reports everywhere on the internet are suggesting that Ronie has agreed to personal terms with Flamengo and now only the two clubs must agree.  The move gives the dribbling dynamo a chance to return to Brazil, while Milan will be able to shed his immense salary to make way for younger players.

As someone who watched ~90% of Milan’s games last year, I can tell you one thing about our beloved ‘Dinho.  He needs the ball at his feet to feel good.  He can’t make a one touch pass and sprint to open space, it just doesn’t feel right to him.  He’s transformed himself into a player who is famous for his dribbling, so he feels that he NEEDS to dribble.  It’s become a part of his play that he can’t bypass, even when it hurts the team.

Allegri likes to play an up-tempo, counter-attacking style.  The current version of Ronaldinho is the born nemesis to a counter-attack, because it involves sprinting and quick passes.  Leonardo learned quickly last season that for Milan to thrive with ‘Dinho and Pirlo as their main creative forces, that they needed to play a methodical, possession-driven game.

The other concern for Milan, is the Brazilian’s lack of defensive responsibility.  Against Manchester United in the Champions League, he was consistently beaten by Gary Neville, who could hardly be considered an offensive threat.  Watching teams like Germany, Spain or the Netherlands in South Africa, it’s obvious how important the defensive responsibilities of wing players are.  Ronaldinho doesn’t have the stamina or willingness to provide that type of cover to his teammates.

If Allegri is to implement the system he desires, then rumors of acquisitions like Lucas Podolski make a lot of sense as they simultaneously provide pace and youth at the same time.  A trident of Pato, Borriello and Princy Poldy would surely give Allegri the firepower he needs.

If Ronie really does leave the San Siro, it will probably be in the best interest of both parties, but it will also be a sad event.  He re-discovered his game last season, but unfortunately it might not be good enough to thrive at the highest level.

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We can [...] No related posts.]]>

It’s a topic we all love discussing, and we all have different opinions about.  Some of us would rather see a pure poacher in the lineup while others believe that target men are the most effective and still more believe that a striker who plays well with the ball at his feet is essential.

We can debate the merits of Antonio Di Natale or Fabrizio Miccoli until we’re blue in the face.  Well, I’ve decided to add some fuel to the fire with the Sports Opinionated Attack Rating (SOAR).  If you’d like an explanation of how it’s created, here is a full one.

In short, I’ve used some basic attacking stats like goals, assists, shots on goal and times fouled to estimate the attacking impact of every forward in Serie A as if they played 90 minutes every game to equalize for playing time.

Now given that I’m the same guy who once wrote that Ronaldinho has lost it, and also have had some great debate on the merits of Eto’o for Inter, I thought I would answer some key striker-related questions from around Italy using SOAR.

Which forwards are the most important to Inter? 

This was a hotly debated topic going into the CL final, and there still seem to be many who would love to continue the debate.  In order to stir the pot a little more, take a look at this table.

Keep in mind that SOAR only shows the offensive impact a player has had, so it won’t account for the amount of tracking back and defensive work that Pandev and Eto’o performed so well on the season.

The most obvious thing that jumps out, is how effective Super Mario Balotelli was when he was on the pitch.  In fact, he had the highest SOAR rating in all of Serie A.  What makes Balotelli so effective is that he’s so versatile.  He gets a high number of balls on the net, is adept at finding others for an easy goal and has an amazing ability to draw fouls when the ball is at his feet, as we discussed on the Pink Shirt Wise Guys podcast.

The interesting notion to me, as well was that while Pandev and Eto’o essentially performed the same role, it was Pandev that was much more effective offensively.  The main concern seems to be Eto’o’s ability to hit the net.  He was only on target 34% of the time, which was lower than any other Inter forward and well below the league average of 44.6%.

Should Milan really try to buy another striker this summer? 

This is my own personal “scratch my eyeballs out with a chopstick” topic.  It continues to infuriate me that the AC Milan brain trust seem to be shopping for a striker while there are massive holes in midfield and the back line.  Assuming that their new coach continues to deploy a system where Ronaldinho and Pato are wingers or support strikers, does Milan need a new player up front?

At first glance, I may have to eat my words in many ways.  For starters, Ronaldinho was highly effective over large minutes, which is much harder to do than be highly effective over limited minutes.

Apparently my incessant moaning for Huntelaar to get more playing time has been unfounded. 

The Expected SOAR (eSOAR) is calculated just using a players SOG, not their actual goals.  It’s a measure of the player’s ability to get in dangerous positions, while the SOAR was the measure of what they did in those positions.  In this case, both Huntelaar and Borriello did very little to put themselves in good positions, but made the most of those positions, either through great finishing, a bit of luck or a combination of both. 

Most of the top strikers have a rating in the range of 0.850 to 1.100, so it’s actually feasible that Milan could get good value out of a top notch finisher.  I will now staple my mouth shut.

Which strikers should start for Italy in the World Cup?

Given that I write about sports, obviously my favorite hobby is criticizing coaches.  In this case, I’m not going to debate the merits of who Marcello Lippi selected, but I would like to evaluate the players he has at his disposal.

As you can see, and most people already believed, Gianpaolo Pazzini is clearly Italy’s most effective strike option.  Not only did he score, but he drew an immense amount of fouls from opposing defenders.

The question will be whether Lippi decides to play a trident or a strike partnership.

With Iaquinta’s back injury, he may not be available, and probably isn’t a good partner for Pazzini anyway given their similar styles.  That said, he should be the first choice substitution if he’s healthy.

Di Natale seems to be an automatic starter, whether on the left side or floating behind Pazzini.  He scored at an amazing rate and added 6 assists as well.  He’s a given.

Marco Borriello needs to be the next cut from this team.  While his SOAR is decent, his eSOAR tells me he doesn’t create dangerous opportunities.  Having watched him all year, this seems absolutely correct.  I would much rather see both Giuseppe Rossi and Fabio Quagliarella in the squad.

Which starter had the best season in Serie A?

By “starter”, I’m going to assume a cutoff of 2250 minutes which represents two-thirds of the minutes available to a player in Serie A.  As I stated above, it is much harder to play at a high level over a multitude of games, than to do it for the last 30 minutes of every game.  This filter eliminates the likes of Pato, Totti and Balotelli, who are all immensely talented but weren’t durable or couldn’t hold their temper enough to stay on the pitch.

Below are the top 10 in Serie A this year.

The top 6 players shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who watched much Serie A this season.  All of these players were the headline grabbers throughout the year and their SOAR seems to confirm what we see with our own eyes. 

Players 7 through 10, however, sure jumped out at me.  I wasn’t surprised to see Vucinic in the hunt as he’s had a phenomenal season, but the other 3 wouldn’t be the players I believe most Serie A fans would list off the top of their head.

Neither Lavezzi or Sanchez were very prolific in the scoring department, but they consistently drew fouls from opposing defenses, meaning they had the better of their defenders on a regular basis. 

Massimo Maccarone on the other hand, had a phenomenal season for Sienna and would be a great player for the likes of Sampdoria to pick up to provide depth now that they’re in the Champions League next season.

Which small-club player is due to break out or move to a bigger club?

I eliminated all the European-bound teams and also Lazio, Udinese and Fiorentina as these clubs achieve a lot of exposure nationally.  I left Parma in the mix, purely because they weren’t the subject of as many headlines as the rest. 

I also required at least 1000 minutes of playing time to ensure that a few lucky goals our bounces didn’t sway the data too much.

Davide Lanzafame had an absolutely stellar season for Parma.  He scored in limited minutes, chipped in some assists and was fouled at an alarming rate.  For 8^th place Parma to move into European contention next year, they need to rely on him more next season.

The Cagliari trio of Jeda, Nene and Matri all were very effective.  In this case, it’s hard to tell whether they played in a particularly good offensive system, or if they really were that impressive.  Either way, Cagliari is in good hands if they can hold onto at least two of the three, since Matri may get a chance at a bigger club.

While this may go against popular belief, I think Maxi Lopez may be a much more superior striker than the likes of Borriello.  Their numbers may look similar in that they both seem to outperform their eSOAR, but Lopez hits the net at a much higher rate than Borriello, leading me to believe that he is a more accurate shooter.

Finally, Martins Adailton could be an interesting signing for a mid-level club like Bari who has a great defense and needs to add some firepower along with Barreto.

What’s next?

If there are scenarios you’d like me to compare using SOAR, let me know either in the comments or email me.

I would like to add crossing statistics to the mix, but at the moment it’s very hard to find reliable data for Serie A so please pass on any sources you may have.

I will likely be adding in players from other leagues throughout the summer and normalizing for the goals scored per game in each league.

At some point I will also start using SOAR to show the attacking value of different midfielders and fullbacks but would like to have crossing stats first given that it’s a much bigger part of their game.

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Some Italians would undoubtedly have Francesco Totti’s name adorning the [...] No related posts.]]> Ever since the World Cup in 2006, there has only ever been one name I would have had stitched only my Italy jersey.  Most people would naturally assume that name would be Andrea Pirlo, Gianluigi Buffon, Alessandro Del Piero or Fabio Cannavaro for their outstanding performances. 

Some Italians would undoubtedly have Francesco Totti’s name adorning the Azzurri blue, but as we’ve discussed on the Pink Shirt Wise Guys podcast, the peninsula’s obsession with Totti escapes me.

I’ve always loved players like Gianluca Zambrotta and Gennaro Gattuso, but they don’t make the cut for my jersey either.

The man who has forever earned a place in my footballing heart is none other than Fabio Grosso.  Grosso doesn’t appear to be the savior of a country’s hopes when you see him, but he will go down in Azzurri history in the same way that Paul Henderson does for Hockey Canada. 

Grosso was recently dropped from this year’s World Cup squad and deservedly so.  Many of Italy’s best players from 2006 are no longer playing at the same level and Grosso is definitely a cut below some of the other players Lippi has at his disposal.

 With his departure from the Azzurri, it seemed fitting that we take a look at his improbable run to national hero in 2006.

 As the starting left back for Palermo, Grosso made the Azzurri, primarily as a substitute and backup for Cristian Zaccardo and didn’t make it into the starting lineup until Zaccardo was pulled after the game versus the USA.

While Grosso was a very good player for Italy, bombing up and down the left flank, he was far from a dominant player all tournament.  What makes him stick out in my mind is that he came up big when Italy needed him the most.  He was the most prominent player in the biggest plays in each of Italy’s final 3 games, all when the game was on the line.

I nicknamed him the “Iceman” after his stellar games versus Australia and Germany and he vindicated the moniker in the final against France.

Vs Australia (Round of 16)

In a game that Italy largely dominated the scoring chances, the Australian team had kept it close until Grosso drew the deciding penalty for Totti to convert.

While there was some controversy around the penalty drawn by Grosso, the fact remains that Neill didn’t get the ball and impeded Grosso’s path by bodying one of his legs.  Neill didn’t intend it, but Grosso’s fabulous cut inside drew the foul, and his timing was impeccable.  He either had a free run to goal, or Neill would have to impede him.  In this case he drew the penalty.

Much like a basketball player who continually gets into the lane, getting the ball into the box is placing the other team on their heels.  They have to make a very good tackle, risk the penalty or give up a chance.  Grosso continually put defenses on their heels throughout the tournament.

Vs Germany (Semi-Finals)

Grosso helped create several chances pushing forward up the left, but will forever be remembered for scoring the winning goal in extra time on a first-touch, curling shot to the far post that was practically untouchable for goaltender Jens Lehman. 

The goal decided what was one of the most entertaining and suspenseful World Cup matches in years.

His celebration after the goal was also a classic display of pure joy and excitement that will be shown on highlight clips for years.

This shows the highlights of the whole game, but jump to the 7:45 mark to see Grosso’s goal.

This video shows the goal from Grosso’s angle, giving you an appreciation of how truly unstoppable it was.

Vs France (Finals)

While Grosso wasn’t quite as influential as he had been in previous games, he was still chosen by Lippi to be Italy’s final penalty shooter, showing the confidence the team had in him to perform under pressure.

I remember being incredibly tense as a spectator and instantly loosening up when I saw Grosso walking to the penalty spot.  Inside, all I could think was “it’s OK, the Iceman’s got this one” and I would regularly be considered a sports pessimist. 

There are very few athletes who can project this type of confidence in their supporters and it’s a perfect way to describe the stamp Grosso put on this World Cup.

Grosso’s goal can be watched from the 6:00 mark.

While Grosso has had to make way for younger and more in-form talent on the Azzurri, he will forever be remembered as he man who sealed the World Cup for Italy in ’06, three times.

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#5.  [...] No related posts.]]> As we talked about on the Pink Shirt Wise Guys podcast earlier this week, it seems like a foregone conclusion that Inter will beat Bayern for the UEFA Champions League title this Saturday.  While no game is ever a sure thing, there are 5 players who will play key roles for Inter in the match.

#5.  Mario Balotelli

While Balotelli can be ripe for an implosion, he is also the most mercurial, game-changing talent on the pitch.  His combination of size, speed, ball control and finish is a handful for any defense, especially the shaky defense of Bayern Munich.

Balotelli is much more likely to be used as a sub than a starter, but could be in line for a late goal.  He has the best “goals per 90 min” rate of any Inter player.

#4.  Douglas Maicon

With Franck Ribery suspended for the Final, Maicon is likely to breath the biggest sigh of relief.  Even though Ribery has been less effective than in past years, he still forces the fullback on his side to play almost entirely in a defensive role.  Maicon should be able to push forward and create offense without having as much defensive responsibility (apologies to Hamit Altintop).

#3.  Wesley Sneijder

Although there are doubts about Sneijder’s health for the final, he is crucial nonetheless.  He is the one true creator on Inter and would draw all of Mark van Bommel’s attention, leaving the strikers to pick apart Bayern’s weak central defensive partnership.

#2.  Diego Milito

Milito has been nothing short of sensational this year.  He has found the net when Inter needed it most, most notably to seal the Scudetto on the final Sunday of play.  With 28 goals in all competitions (and 4 in Champions League), he is the key offensive weapon in Mourinho’s arsenal.
#1.  Javier Zanetti

Zanetti has been employed both as a left back and as a holding midfielder this season by Mourinho.  No matter where he has played, he’s found a way to shut down the opposition’s best playmaker.  He combined with Chivu to shut down the dynamic duo of Dani Alves and Lionel Messi and took Anelka out of the match against Chelsea.

Bayern have been almost entirely dependent on Arjen Robben’s timely goals throughout the Champions League, and if Zanetti can once again shackle his man, then this contest is over.

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