Sports Opinionated

Review of Last Year’s NFL Predictions

Ryan Popilchak — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 17:36:33 +0000

Last year, I kicked off the NFL season in the infancy of Sports Opinionated with a 4 part preview that outlined my thoughts on predictions for the upcoming season.

If you want to look back at some of my insane thoughts, here are Part I, Part II, Part III and Part IV.

In the true spirit of S-O, I’ve decided to take an analytical, critical and incredibly sarcastic look at my predictions from last year.

Rather than look at every single prediction, let’s just break them down into a few categories.

The Albert Haynesworth “Conditioning Test” Prediction

Much like Big Al avoiding anything but the buffet line in the offseason, there were a few points I made that in retrospect reeked of “lack of research”.

I pinned a lot on the move of Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos to the Chicago Bears. The loss of Cutler by the Broncos eventually resulted in their late-season collapse but they did pretty well without him early on.

The Bears, however, didn’t get better with Cutler. They finished the season with the 28^th ranked offense in the league by DVOA. In this case, there were two incredibly important factors that were left out. The Mike Shanahan factor and the Lovie Smith factor. Both of these coaches have very different impacts on quarterbacks. While Shanahan has a history of making very efficient passers out of natural gunslingers (ex. Elway, Plummer, Cutler), Lovie’s offenses tend to expose his QB’s weaknesses. Just look at the INTs thrown by Rex Grossman and Cutler or the lack of creativity to use Kyle Orton’s short throw accuracy.

The Ben Roethlisberger “Lost Touch with Reality” Prediction

Much like Big Ben’s dirtbag haircut and questionable offseason conduct, I made one prediction last year that I should be extremely ashamed of. I picked the Seattle Seahawks as a team that could improve dramatically with a reduction in injuries. I even picked them to win the division.

I have no defense for this pick. The Seahawks lacked talent, their defense took a step back and the offense looked devoid of any threat outside of Justin Forsett, who the coaching staff wouldn’t play enough. I have no defense, just take it easy on me.

The Darrelle Revis “You Owe Me Money” Predictions

I was fantasy gold last year. It doesn’t happen very often, so just let me gloat.

Yes, I recommended Matt Forte and LT, and I will force myself to watch the Rams play two or three games this year as punishment.

That said, I steered the readers clear of Michael Turner and Brian Westbrook. But most importantly, in the sleeper section, I recommended LeSean McCoy, Miles Austin, Cedric Benson, and Shonn Greene.

Predictions coming

With only 1 more week until the NFL starts, look out for a few preseason predictions from me. Hopefully I’m not quite as delirious as last year.

Cristobal Huet’s Exile – Talent or Money?

Ryan Popilchak — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 05:44:34 +0000

With news that Cristobal Huet is headed to Switzerland to play for HC Fribourg-Gotteron, the Huet Haters are becoming more vocal than Don Cherry and Pierre McGuire combined.

While it’s easy to say that he didn’t live up to expectations in Chicago the past two seasons, the question remains as to how good Huet really is and whether there is a spot for him in the NHL. The Blackhawks obviously couldn’t move him, so was it his talent, or just his $5.6m cap hit?

Below is a list of the NHL’s active career save percentage leaders, courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com. I have added in the cap hits for each player according to CapGeek.com to give us some perspective. Finally, this information has been used to calculate a number called Dollars per Goal ($ / G).

In order to come up with this metric, I used a Goalie Threshold Save Percentage of 90.5% according to this article at Behind the Net. Assuming the average goalie faced 2000 shots per season (~80% of his team’s shots against), we can estimate the number of extra goals he would stop if he matched his career average save percentage. We can also calculate how much money it cost the team to save those extra goals.

Keep in mind that the lower the cost per goal, the better deal it is for the team.

It may surprise you to see that Huet is tied for 10^th on the active career save percentage list. Given that stat alone, it seems logical that he could start for two thirds of the teams in the NHL. The problem, however, is with his relative value.

Not only does Huet’s cap hit make him the 4^th worst contract value on this list, but he’s being shopped during a period when the market is correcting for goalies. Look no further than the deals signed by Chris Mason and Marty Turco to see the difference. Their deals represent a discount of 45-70% per goal from the other players on the list.

Any potential trade partners interested in Huet had to think about what they could invest the extra money in if they paid for a player like Antti Niemi or Turco instead.

In the Blackhawks’ case, the need to move Huet was largely about creating cap room, but for other GMs in the league, it has been about efficient spending. Huet’s deal just isn’t as desirable as what can be had on the open market, even if he was given to them for free.

Back in 2008, Huet must have been delighted with his big-money deal when he signed it, but now it’s the very thing that’s pushing him out of the NHL.

Change of Focus on S-O, New Serie A site launched!

Ryan Popilchak — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 16:39:26 +0000

As much as I love soccer, especially Serie A and the EPL, Sports Opinionated has been a confusing read for our fans.

Typically, the fans of North American-based sports are not the same fans of soccer, although that is changing somewhat. That said, Sports Opinionated will narrow our focus to just hockey and football (the North American kind). The goal will be to provide a statistically-relevant and in-depth analytical look at both sports, with the usual bad jokes sprinkled in as well.

This doesn’t mean I’ll be ignoring my love of The Beautiful Game. Pete and I have launched the Pink Shirt Wise Guys site dedicated to Italy’s Serie A , with podcasts, formation analysis, stats and features like our goal of the week.

So, over the next few weeks, you’ll see the soccer articles disappear from here and start popping up on the PSWG site. If you’re a soccer fan, please come by for a visit!

Flames Potential Forward Line Combinations: posted on M&G

Ryan Popilchak — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 13:59:11 +0000

an article I posted at Matchsticks & Gasoline this week

Last week I proposed a few trades the Flames could potentially make in order to get both under the cap and to add a prospect.

All trades aside, I am ridiculously curious to see what the line combinations will be for the Flames this year.

There are a variety of questions that need to be answered. Who plays with Iginla? Does Backlund get meaningful icetime? How will Conroy be used? Which forwards should be matched up against the opposition’s best? Will anyone from Abbottsford get a regular call-up?

With that in mind, I started bouncing line combinations around in that empty space I call a head, just to see what came out.

My basic views on forwards lines are as follows:

1^st Line = Scoring Line

2^nd Line = Tough Minutes Line

3^rd Line = Easy Minutes Offense Line

4^th Line = Young Players or Goons

The 1^st and 2^nd Line match up against the opposition’s best players, with the 1^st Line getting significantly more offensive zone draws than the 2^nd line. If the 1^st line can outscore their opposition and the 2^nd line can play to a draw, that’s a success.

The 3^rd line should be able to chip in offensively and outscore inferior opponents while the 4^th line can either be stocked with goons or more to my liking, using it as a place for young players to develop, as Kent Wilson outlines here.

Taking a look at the forwards at Brent Sutter’s disposal, I have a few recommendations. Just to be clear, I’m assuming that Kotalik has been jettisoned to Abbottsford to make cap room.

1^st Line – Tanguay, Jokinen, Iginla

The theory is that Tanguay will thrive as the distributor for two shooters in Jokinen and Iginla. At this point, I tend to agree. This line could shine with the offensive draws even against another teams top one or two lines. However, I’d shy away from defensive zone draws, saving them as much as possible for offense.

2^nd Line – Bourque, Langkow, Glencross (& Conroy)

As far as tough-minutes lines go, this line could do well. Langkow is used to playing uphill and against decent competition as he handled these duties for the Flames last year. Bourque and Glencross were the Flames top 2 Relative +/- players last year and Glencross had a phenomenally low 1.67 GA/60. In my mind, Conroy’s main contribution early in the season is to provide cover for Langkow if he’s not ready to start the season. Conroy was the only other center in Calgary last year to have a Zone Start rate below 50%.

This line could be the equivalent of the O-line in football, with very little fanfare, but vital to the team’s success.

3^rd Line – Hagman, Stajan, Moss

While Stajan and Hagman don’t seem to play well against top competition, they are very capable of outscoring another team’s 3^rd or 4^th line. All three players had a Corsi over 7 last year, so at the very least should outshoot whatever line they’re matched against. This line could take defensive zone draws against opponents 3^rd and 4^th lines.

4^th Line – Jackman, Backlund, Nemisz, Ryan Stone, Ivanans

Welcome to the carousel line. The three players I would like to see here are Backlund, Nemisz and Stone (yes, I know 2 are centers). Stone was a positive player (Corsi = 6.40) with the Oilers last year despite playing top competition.

As the guys over at Copper N’ Blue showed earlier this week, young players start to make the leap at age 20. Backlund is 21 this year and Nemisz is 20. A young line like this who got purely offensive zone draws versus opponents 3^rd and 4^th lines could have the chance to develop. If they struggled early, Nemisz could be replaced by Jackman, who had a horrendous Corsi rating last year for the Islanders but had only a 33.8% Zone Start and the hardest Corsi QoC of all regular forwards in Long Island.

If the Flames want to make the playoffs, they need to score more than they did last season, without losing much on the defensive end. The right line combinations could provide Sutter with enough firepower in the offensive zone while still being as risk-averse as possible in his own end. I think the lines above could provide that, but I’d love to hear your ideas.

What is Darrelle Revis Worth to the Jets?

Ryan Popilchak — Sun, 15 Aug 2010 16:42:03 +0000

Revis Island can be a lonely place for receivers. At the moment it’s also a lonely place for a Darrelle Revis. The man who was hands-down the best defensive player in the league last year is not practicing or spending time with his teammates, and it HAS to be a frustrating way to follow up such a great season.

As a fan, I always seem to pick a side when there are holdouts or contract disputes. Last year I thought that Michael Crabtree was making a stupid mistake holding out, and I still think that. In Revis’ case, it’s not so black and white.

Revis is playing on the rookie deal he signed that pays him $30M over 6 years. That’s not gutter money. While Revis’ base salary is only $550,000 this season, he got $5M in bonuses in 2007 and another $6.9M in bonuses between 2008 and 2009 (according to NYJetsCap.com). The big issue is his final two years, which are voidable, but the Jets could buy them back for $15-20M depending on certain incentives. The guy has made, and will make some sick money, it’s just that he wants to be paid like Nnamdi Asomugha.

As Bill Simmons’ put in his latest column, the only advantage owners have now is when a player outperforms his contract. That’s definitely the upside for the team. The downside comes when they sign a player to a big contract and he never lives up to it, but it’s easy to cut players in the NFL and only the signing bonus money is lost along with a cap hit.

So the argument really boils down to one question. Did Revis’ outperform his rookie contract badly enough that he deserves a re-negotiation?

Rather than rehashing what many other writers have covered, just take a look at this article put together by Tim Graham of ESPN (the table is below). Revis took every team’s #1 receiver out of the game. Given that it was against players such as Randy Moss, Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne, we can safely say that he was more restrictive to receivers than belts are to Albert Haynesworth.

Receivers vs. Darrelle Revis And Rest Of The NFL

Week	Receiver	vs. Revis (Rec-Yds-TD)	Avg vs. rest of NFL	TD
1	Andre Johnson, Texans	4-35-0	7-105	9
2	Randy Moss, Patriots	4-24-0	5-86	12
4	Marques Colston, Saints	2-33-0	5-70	9
6	Terrell Owens, Bills	3-13-0	4-76	4
10	Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars	3-49-1	4-54	7
11	Randy Moss, Patriots	5-34-1	5-86	12
12	Steve Smith, Panthers	1-5-0	5-70	7
13	Terrell Owens, Bills	3-31-0	4-56	4
15	Roddy White, Falcons	4-33-0	5-75	10
16	Reggie Wayne, Colts	3-33-0	7-82	10
17	Chad Ochocinco*, Bengals	0-0-0	5-70	9
*Snapped streak of 120 consecutive games with a reception

In the Football Outsiders Almanac 2010, Bill Barnwell compares Revis’ performance (using Yds per pass) to Peyton Manning passing for 5,532 yards, Maurice Jones-Drew rushing for 2,000 yards or Brandon Marshall racking up 1,922 yards receiving.

So yes, Darrelle was good last year. Damn good.

For further proof, take a look at the chart below to see how his 3-year stats compare to other top corners in the league and their salaries. I also included Dunta Robinson because he was the most recent corner to sign a free agent deal.

Just as a refresher, Success Rate is better when it’s high and measures the CB’s ability to stop his receiver from gaining 45% of the yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2^nd down and 100% on third. So if Revis was covering a WR on 3^rd and 8, and let him catch the pass for 5 yards and a punt, that is a success. Catches aren’t as important as first downs.

Revis’ 2009 season definitely blows away any other season on this chart. Bailey’s best season since FO started game charting is 2006 (62% SR and 5.8 yds/pa), Woodson’s was 2008 and Asomugha’s 2007 was the season everyone anointed him the best corner in the NFL.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Revis’ is the best corner in the NFL right now, but he’s really only been at that level for 2 years, and possibly has 3 years left on his deal. At ~$5m per year (based on the Jets buy-back price) he’s definitely a value deal for the Jets, but he’s not free either. For Revis’, the big money doesn’t really kick in until next season so he’s likely worried that an injury this year could wipe out the big payday.

Revis’ insistence on being paid Asomugha money is absurd though. Asomugha is extremely overpaid, and just because Al Davis is a few plays short of a playbook doesn’t mean every team should follow suit. The more realistic contract is likely Dunta Robinson’s.

The argument has been made that the Jets will play well with or without Revis. They will play good defense without him, but anyone who thinks he can be replaced talent-wise is smoking more than Turtle and Johnny Drama combined.

In this ESPN Insider article, KC Joyner argues that the Jets other CB’s also had great seasons in Yards per Attempt and that in the past, when players like Champ Bailey had a great season, the other corners on the team didn’t. Revis follows the #1 receiver all over the field, while most corners play only on one side of the field. The reason the Jets other CB’s looked better is because they NEVER had to face the opposition’s best player. Revis effectively shielded them from top competition.

Joyner further states that the Jets pressure scheme funneled plays towards Revis because he was always in single coverage. He then goes out on a limb to say that since Cromartie intercepted 10 passes in 2007, that the Jets could get a lot of interceptions if Cromartie replaces Revis. What he failed to mention was that Cromartie has only 15 career interceptions in 4 seasons, so 2007 was likely a career year, with a lot of luck. He’s never had more than 3 interceptions in any other season in his entire career. Furthermore, Cromartie hasn’t been over a 50% success rate in the last 3 seasons.

Cromartie can replace Revis as well as I could replace Brad Pitt in Fight Club.

My Recommendations

Revis has drastically outperformed his contract, but needs to be conscious that the Jets should get some value from him for it and don’t want to be held to Asomugha’s ridiculous contract figure.

The Jets need to realize that Darelle Revis is the centerpiece of their defense and is in his prime as he just turned 25 a month ago. He could hold down their defense for the next 5 or 6 years.

Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum should offer Revis a contract extension for 3 years at $11M per season, but tack on an extra $15M as a retroactive “Defensive Player of the Year” bonus to acknowledge the fact that Revis got robbed when the award went to Charles Woodson.

Revis gets his ego massaged (by the DPOY bonus), and some short-term guaranteed money, and the Jets get the best corner in the league for $20m over the next 3 years and $11m per year after that (plus bonus).