Popular Posts
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Speculating on Whether Regehr Should be Traded by the Flames
Based on a few comments on the Illegal Curve radio show, I put up a post on Matchsticks & Gasoline yesterday about the Flames potential to trade Regehr and why it’s time to do so.
The article is posted here.
Below is an excerpt from the article.
“Now before everyone gets their guard up and says Regehr is [...]
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Posted on HP: NHL Team Architecture
Here is a study that I did for Hockey Prospectus on NHL Team Architecture. Obviously since I posted it on HP, I believe they have a great site, so definitely take a look at some of the material from their other great writers too.
Front Office Focus – NHL Team Architecture
What is the best way to [...]
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Jay Bouwmeester: Disappointment or Not Used Properly?
This is a story I posted on Matchsticks & Gasoline as part of our player preview series. Come take a look at some of the other articles if you’re interested.
Sometimes things just don’t work out like we thought. Items bought on eBay looked better in the picture than when they arrive in the mail, your [...]
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Fireman Ed Should Pour a Stiff Drink
Rex Ryan may be the king of the F-bombs, but he better use as many as he can during the regular season. The Jets won’t be making the playoffs.
The Jets used up all their luck last year. There are no playoff-bound cakewalk games at the end of this season’s schedule. Opposing kickers are all out [...]
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What is Darrelle Revis Worth to the Jets?
Revis Island can be a lonely place for receivers. At the moment it’s also a lonely place for a Darrelle Revis. The man who was hands-down the best defensive player in the league last year is not practicing or spending time with his teammates, and it HAS to be a frustrating way to follow up [...]
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by Ryan Popilchak
Last year, the only thing that made watching the Oakland Raiders bearable, was drinking codeine syrup. This year it might be a different story.
In the 2009-10 season, the Black Hole referred to the Raiders’ quarterback position. It’s where passing went to die.
While it didn’t get a lot of hype as a top offseason acquisition, the Raiders addition of Jason Campbell at quarterback could possibly be the biggest upgrade by any team at any position. I wrote about Campbell’s worth last year.
Don’t get me wrong, just because his initials are J.C. doesn’t make him the savior. That said, I can guarantee you that he is a monstrous upgrade at the quarterback position for the Raiders and will make a big impact on their offense.
Continue reading Jason Campbell’s Impact on the Oakland Raiders
by Ryan Popilchak
Rex Ryan may be the king of the F-bombs, but he better use as many as he can during the regular season. The Jets won’t be making the playoffs.
The Jets used up all their luck last year. There are no playoff-bound cakewalk games at the end of this season’s schedule. Opposing kickers are all out jinxed out. Oh yeah, and Mark Sanchez still sucks as an NFL quarterback. His upside is “Jake Plummer” not Broadway Joe. Let’s ditch the Sanchize label right now.
Look, I’m not saying the Jets will be a bad team, but they are in a division with two legitimately tough opponents and in a conference with other good wildcard candidates. They also got a lot of breaks last year and just don’t seem likely to repeat.
Continue reading Fireman Ed Should Pour a Stiff Drink
by Ryan Popilchak
 Last year, I kicked off the NFL season in the infancy of Sports Opinionated with a 4 part preview that outlined my thoughts on predictions for the upcoming season.
If you want to look back at some of my insane thoughts, here are Part I, Part II, Part III and Part IV.
In the true spirit of S-O, I’ve decided to take an analytical, critical and incredibly sarcastic look at my predictions from last year.
Rather than look at every single prediction, let’s just break them down into a few categories.
The Albert Haynesworth “Conditioning Test” Prediction
Much like Big Al avoiding anything but the buffet line in the offseason, there were a few points I made that in retrospect reeked of “lack of research”.
I pinned a lot on the move of Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos to the Chicago Bears. The loss of Cutler by the Broncos eventually resulted in their late-season collapse but they did pretty well without him early on.
The Bears, however, didn’t get better with Cutler. They finished the season with the 28th ranked offense in the league by DVOA. In this case, there were two incredibly important factors that were left out. The Mike Shanahan factor and the Lovie Smith factor. Both of these coaches have very different impacts on quarterbacks. While Shanahan has a history of making very efficient passers out of natural gunslingers (ex. Elway, Plummer, Cutler), Lovie’s offenses tend to expose his QB’s weaknesses. Just look at the INTs thrown by Rex Grossman and Cutler or the lack of creativity to use Kyle Orton’s short throw accuracy.
The Ben Roethlisberger “Lost Touch with Reality” Prediction
Much like Big Ben’s dirtbag haircut and questionable offseason conduct, I made one prediction last year that I should be extremely ashamed of. I picked the Seattle Seahawks as a team that could improve dramatically with a reduction in injuries. I even picked them to win the division.
I have no defense for this pick. The Seahawks lacked talent, their defense took a step back and the offense looked devoid of any threat outside of Justin Forsett, who the coaching staff wouldn’t play enough. I have no defense, just take it easy on me.
The Darrelle Revis “You Owe Me Money” Predictions
I was fantasy gold last year. It doesn’t happen very often, so just let me gloat.
Yes, I recommended Matt Forte and LT, and I will force myself to watch the Rams play two or three games this year as punishment.
That said, I steered the readers clear of Michael Turner and Brian Westbrook. But most importantly, in the sleeper section, I recommended LeSean McCoy, Miles Austin, Cedric Benson, and Shonn Greene.
Predictions coming
With only 1 more week until the NFL starts, look out for a few preseason predictions from me. Hopefully I’m not quite as delirious as last year.
by Ryan Popilchak
With news that Cristobal Huet is headed to Switzerland to play for HC Fribourg-Gotteron, the Huet Haters are becoming more vocal than Don Cherry and Pierre McGuire combined.
While it’s easy to say that he didn’t live up to expectations in Chicago the past two seasons, the question remains as to how good Huet really is and whether there is a spot for him in the NHL. The Blackhawks obviously couldn’t move him, so was it his talent, or just his $5.6m cap hit? Continue reading Cristobal Huet’s Exile – Talent or Money?
by Ryan Popilchak
As much as I love soccer, especially Serie A and the EPL, Sports Opinionated has been a confusing read for our fans.
Typically, the fans of North American-based sports are not the same fans of soccer, although that is changing somewhat. That said, Sports Opinionated will narrow our focus to just hockey and football (the North American kind). The goal will be to provide a statistically-relevant and in-depth analytical look at both sports, with the usual bad jokes sprinkled in as well.
This doesn’t mean I’ll be ignoring my love of The Beautiful Game. Pete and I have launched the Pink Shirt Wise Guys site dedicated to Italy’s Serie A , with podcasts, formation analysis, stats and features like our goal of the week.
So, over the next few weeks, you’ll see the soccer articles disappear from here and start popping up on the PSWG site. If you’re a soccer fan, please come by for a visit!
by Ryan Popilchak
an article I posted at Matchsticks & Gasoline this week
Last week I proposed a few trades the Flames could potentially make in order to get both under the cap and to add a prospect.
All trades aside, I am ridiculously curious to see what the line combinations will be for the Flames this year.
There are a variety of questions that need to be answered. Who plays with Iginla? Does Backlund get meaningful icetime? How will Conroy be used? Which forwards should be matched up against the opposition’s best? Will anyone from Abbottsford get a regular call-up?
With that in mind, I started bouncing line combinations around in that empty space I call a head, just to see what came out. Continue reading Flames Potential Forward Line Combinations: posted on M&G
by Ryan Popilchak
Revis Island can be a lonely place for receivers. At the moment it’s also a lonely place for a Darrelle Revis. The man who was hands-down the best defensive player in the league last year is not practicing or spending time with his teammates, and it HAS to be a frustrating way to follow up such a great season.
As a fan, I always seem to pick a side when there are holdouts or contract disputes. Last year I thought that Michael Crabtree was making a stupid mistake holding out, and I still think that. In Revis’ case, it’s not so black and white.
Revis is playing on the rookie deal he signed that pays him $30M over 6 years. That’s not gutter money. While Revis’ base salary is only $550,000 this season, he got $5M in bonuses in 2007 and another $6.9M in bonuses between 2008 and 2009 (according to NYJetsCap.com). The big issue is his final two years, which are voidable, but the Jets could buy them back for $15-20M depending on certain incentives. The guy has made, and will make some sick money, it’s just that he wants to be paid like Nnamdi Asomugha.
As Bill Simmons’ put in his latest column, the only advantage owners have now is when a player outperforms his contract. That’s definitely the upside for the team. The downside comes when they sign a player to a big contract and he never lives up to it, but it’s easy to cut players in the NFL and only the signing bonus money is lost along with a cap hit.
So the argument really boils down to one question. Did Revis’ outperform his rookie contract badly enough that he deserves a re-negotiation? Continue reading What is Darrelle Revis Worth to the Jets?
by Ryan Popilchak
This article was posted originally on Matchsticks & Gasoline. I have signed on as an author at this fantastic Flames’ blog, so come on by and check it out.
I’m obsessed with the behavior of GMs and how they handle the salary cap. It’s amazing how many teams are run by men who can only see the “now” and rarely plan for the future. Unfortunately for the Flames and all of their fans, it appears that Darryl Sutter is one of these executives.
My assertion is that he doesn’t do it on purpose, but because he has a poor track record with the draft. Entry-level contracts are inherently great for cap management and as Gabe Desjardins has frequently stated, RFA’s come at a 40% discount to UFA’s.
Obviously if a GM has a poor draft, it also hurts the team’s cap situation for the life of two relatively cheap contracts. In Darryl’s case, he’s had nothing to brag about from his drafts other than Phaneuf.
My Plan
Given the Flames current cap situation of being overspent by $2.35M (according to CapGeek.com), they obviously have some work to do now just to stay away from NHL sanctions. That said, the front office braintrust could at least use this opportunity to re-stock the barren shelves.
We all know that no one wants Staios or Kotalik at their currently disgusting contracts. And as Kent Wilson pointed out so well, there just aren’t that many teams that actually need a high salary to reach the cap floor.
Obviously then, a pure “salary dump” is highly unlikely, even if the Flames sweetened the pot, which they have few assets to do anyway. If the owners will let Darryl bury these two cap anchors in the minors, that’s great, but it doesn’t make the team any better now or in the future. Also, there seems to be some insane belief that Staios adds something to the team, which makes me want to lick a belt sander. Continue reading Calgary Flames: Managing the Cap and Re-Stocking the Cupboard
by Ryan Popilchak
It’s as if the Bengals were trying to make a last ditch effort to steal Hard Knocks from the Jets. With the media-addicted Chad Ochocinco already on the roster, Cincy has opened the door to both Pacman Jones and now Terrell Owens.
While the addition of Owens may make a few people shake their heads for his dirtbag locker room antics, he could be a gem on the field.
The Bengals at one time had an incredibly explosive offense with Ochocinco, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson. They also used a combination of Kelley Washington and Chris Henry as deep threats.
The point is that Carson Palmer has been a top QB when he’s been surrounded by a variety of weapons. He’s not the signal caller to make something out of nothing, but he knows how to use the weapons he has.
The addition of Owens, completes the set of weapons at his disposal.
The Bengals offense was ranked 15th in Passing (DVOA on Football Outsiders) and 14th in Rushing last year, but was one of the most inconsistent in the league. Part of the problem was their lack of weapons. If a team stacked the box against Cedric Benson and double-covered Ochocinco, they were capable of shutting down the offense. Continue reading Terrell Owens Impact on the Bengals
by Ryan Popilchak
For those of us that believe outshooting the opponent is the most surefire way to victory in the NHL, the LA Kings signing of Alexei Ponikarovsky should set off fireworks.
In his book, Moneyball, Michael Lewis referred to Kevin Youkilis’ as “The Greek God of Walks”. For NHL GMs, Ponikarovsky could be Ukrainian for “Net-peppering Ninja”.
I mentioned Ponikarovsky in an article about the NHL’s Most Intriguing Free Agents purely because he’s a phenomenal Corsi player and 5-on-5 scorer. In terms of 5v5 play, he averaged 2.27 points per 60 minutes and outshot his opposition by 18.99 attempts per 60 minutes. He’s also scored over 20 goals in 4 of the last 5 seasons despite playing for the abysmal Maple Leafs. Continue reading Ponikarovsky Signing Gives LA a Line of Corsi Kings
by Ryan Popilchak
Exactly one year ago, I decided to start the Sports Opinionated blog over on Blogger.com. The goal was to give myself a creative outlet to express my many views on sports, whether misguided or fact-based.
My goal when I started was to write 2-3 posts per week on anything that I was passionate about and to keep it up for at least a year. That way, I could find my writing niche and ensure I still liked writing after committing to it for that long. Obviously I wanted to pick up some readers and contacts with other writers along the way, which has turned out better than I had hoped for.
We didn’t exactly celebrate with cake and champagne here at S-O headquarters (aka my house) but we did hit up a beer and barbeque some sausage, which is much more appropriate anyway.
At this point, I can honestly say that writing about sports is something that feels natural to me. Maybe it’s because I’m just a loud-mouthed former jock who needs to feel like a couch-GM or possibly I’m such a sports-obsessed fan that it further fuels my biggest hobby. It’s probably both.
Regardless, I can say at this point that writing about hockey, football and soccer are all in my wheelhouse and I’ll definitely keep it up. That said, there may be a few changes coming here at S-O to help the readers find only the genre of sports they like most, since I realize that it’s a bit of a scattered approach right now.
At the end of this post, I’ve listed my favorite articles from each month the blog has been running. Hopefully you enjoy reading them as much as I liked writing them.
I also wanted to thank a couple people that have really helped me out in the last year. Continue reading Sports Opinionated is 1 Year Old!!!
by Ryan Popilchak
A review of Kovalchuk’s contract that I wrote for Puck Prospectus on Wednesday. I was away for a few days so didn’t have time to share it here until now.
Front Office Focus – Is the NHL doing the Devils a Favor with the Kovalchuk contract?
All H-E-double-hockey-sticks has broken loose with the NHL rejecting Ilya Kovalchuk’s contract with the New Jersey Devils. Kovalchuk has been free agency’s poster boy for the “superstar” looking for a mega-deal. He got it, and then some.
The Devils signed Kovalchuk to a 17-year contract worth $102M. The problem is that the last six years have such a deflated salary that it set alarm bells off in the NHL offices as a way to circumvent the cap.
The first 11 years of the contract total $98.5M, which would be a cap hit of $8.95M per year. With the final six years tagged on, the cap hit is only $6M per. Those “sham years” effectively saved the Devils almost $3M in cap space despite the fact that it’s highly unlikely Kovalchuk will play until he’s 44.
While there are other contracts that have used similar shrinking salaries over the final years of the deal, none were this blatant. The NHL picked this deal to draw the line and say enough is enough.
The real question, however, is whether this was a good deal for the Devils in the first place. Continue reading Kovalchuk’s Contract: Published on Puck Prospectus
by Ryan Popilchak
Yesterday over at Behind the Net, Gabe made a post about Mikko Koivu’s contract extension with the Wild. In the comments, there was some great debate about how the contract compared to those signed by Tomas Plekanec and Nicklas Backstrom. Given that I’d written up reviews of both contracts here and here, I figured it was worth comparing Koivu’s deal to these two.
First off, we need to compare Koivu’s extension to the top 25 forwards by cap hit. I’ve used GVT as the measure of value here since Goals Versus Threshold should be fairly universal, given that it combines both offense and defense.
Put simply, does Koivu have the same production for every dollar the Wild spent when compared to the other top-paid forwards in the league? Overpaying for a player that isn’t truly top-tier can be the easiest way to sink a team’s cap space, just ask the New York Knicks. Continue reading Mikko Koivu’s New Contract: Seems Inflated
by Ryan Popilchak
It’s only been a few short seasons since Ronaldinho’s over-hyped arrival at Milan. He arrived with a lot of fanfare at a club that needed to sell tickets and jerseys. He was brought in as much for his fame as his talent, which had been dwindling at Barcelona.
For 21 million Euros, he brought two seasons of his huge grin and fancy footwork, along with vision and passing. In his first season, he was largely ineffective playing with Kaka, and in his second he led the offense, although only at his pace.
When we examined his attacking impact at the end of the season, it actually surprised me how effective he was. After all, I was the same guy who skewered him after only a couple games last season. The difference was that he became more of a playmaker spraying passes to Pato on the far side and crosses to anyone he could find in the box.
Ronaldinho is an entertaining player who genuinely seems happy to be playing and definitely gives everything he has, as long as it’s in the offensive end. That said, he’s not a good fit for the new Allegri-run Diavolo, and that’s why Milan is considering letting him leave to Flamengo. Continue reading Departing ‘Dinho?
by Ryan Popilchak
Here is the story as published on Puck Prospectus today.
Front Office Focus – The Flames Free Agent Moves
Free agency frequently brings a variety of deals that range from astute to downright absurd. This year’s free agency period was no different.
While there are a variety of teams that have appeared to alter their talent level significantly for better or worse, the Calgary Flames easily had some of the most head-scratching moves.
Flames GM Darryl Sutter navigated the opening day of free agency by securing contracts for Alex Tanguay and Olli Jokinen. This obviously surprised many in the media and fans alike, since Sutter had previously set both players adrift via trade.
Another curious move that has been overshadowed by the two high profile signings was the buyout of Nigel Dawes. Dawes had a solid season for the Flames last year with a 4.8 GVT and a cap hit of $850,000 next season, before becoming a restricted free agent the following summer. Continue reading Published on Puck Prospectus: The Flames Big FA Moves
by Ryan Popilchak
We’re almost a week into Free Agency at this point and there is no way to declare who has won or lost, just like we should never declare the winner of the NHL draft two days after it’s happened.
That said, we can definitely evaluate the dollars spent at various positions and the deals that seem more or less efficient based on past performance as an indicator of future performance.
Methodology
In order to keep it clean and simple, I used GVT as my sole measure of the value for each player. However, I did use each player’s average GVT over the past three seasons to smooth out the effects of a career year or possibly a truly ugly season.
For those that are still new to the advanced stats used to measure NHL players, check out the explanations here.
I only included players that had an average GVT greater than 4.0, indicating a 3rd line forward, 3rd pairing defenseman or at least a serviceable backup goaltender. I’ve only included players signed since July 1st, as that’s when the free-for-all began.
Each player’s average GVT was then compared to the cap hit of his new contract, minus the league minimum, since we’re comparing to a replacement-level player. Obviously teams who get more value for their money (in terms of goals) will win more over the long term. Continue reading NHL Free Agency – A Look at Value
by Ryan Popilchak
There were 4 great games on the weekend that provided us with some fantastic action. Now we’re down to only four teams and two games over the next two days.
We just published another Pink Shirt Wise Guys podcast, so you’ll be able to get a recap of the key points from the past matches and some insight into the upcoming match-ups of the Netherlands vs Uruguay on Tuesday and Germany vs Spain on Wednesday.
Listen here on the player, on Podbean or subscribe on iTunes.
If you want something to read that will explain, how the last matches turned out, check out these game recaps from Zonal Marking
Holland-Brazil
Uruguay-Ghana
Germany-Argentina
Spain-Paraguay
Enjoy the games!
by Ryan Popilchak
After watching a thrilling comeback by the Netherlands yesterday to knock Brazil out of the World Cup, most fans were treated to yet another riveting finish to a game.
Unfortunately, the overtime match between Uruguay and Ghana ended in some controversy. With the score level and a mere 30 seconds or so left on the clock, Ghana assaulted the Uruguay goal. Uruguay striker, Luis Suarez used his hands to knock the ball off the goal line. The ref called the play correctly, giving Suarez a red card and awarding a penalty shot to Ghana. Controversay followed anyway.
Continue reading Dear FIFA, Give Your Heads a Shake
by Ryan Popilchak
Let’s put it this way. I don’t give a flying puck where LeBron is going on July 1st. I care about celebrating Canada Day and seeing where NHL free agents end up. As a fan, there are always players that are more fun to track than others, since they could have a big impact on your team’s fortunes.
In my mind, here are the 4 most intriguing free agents in this year’s crop.
Continue reading The NHL’s Most Intriguing Free Agents
by Ryan Popilchak
Here is the latest analysis I wrote for the great team at Puck Prospectus. Feel free to read it over there with this link or continue reading below.
The reason I wanted to explore the contract value was the initial reaction so many people had to the dollar figure. I personally felt it was WAY too much at first, but have come around to believing it was a Kesler-level deal, which is decent, but not over the top either. Enjoy.
Continue reading Published on Puck Prospectus: The Tomas Plekanec Contract
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