Based on a few comments on the Illegal Curve radio show, I put up a post on Matchsticks & Gasoline yesterday about the Flames potential to trade Regehr and why it’s time to do so.
The article is posted here.
Below is an excerpt from the article.
“Now before everyone gets their guard up and says Regehr is [...]
Here is a study that I did for Hockey Prospectus on NHL Team Architecture. Obviously since I posted it on HP, I believe they have a great site, so definitely take a look at some of the material from their other great writers too.
This is a story I posted on Matchsticks & Gasoline as part of our player preview series. Come take a look at some of the other articles if you’re interested.
Sometimes things just don’t work out like we thought. Items bought on eBay looked better in the picture than when they arrive in the mail, your [...]
Rex Ryan may be the king of the F-bombs, but he better use as many as he can during the regular season. The Jets won’t be making the playoffs.
The Jets used up all their luck last year. There are no playoff-bound cakewalk games at the end of this season’s schedule. Opposing kickers are all out [...]
Revis Island can be a lonely place for receivers. At the moment it’s also a lonely place for a Darrelle Revis. The man who was hands-down the best defensive player in the league last year is not practicing or spending time with his teammates, and it HAS to be a frustrating way to follow up [...]
We’re into the knockout rounds now and today the goalkeepers saw more balls than a neuter clinic (yes, that could have been dirtier, this is a reputable website…sort of).
Given that offensive display, it’s time we took at look at which forwards are in the best vein of form so far in South Africa. I put together the SOAR stats for the games so far, and have only included players that are left in the tournament.
Since we’re talking about a sample size of only 3 or 4 games, this by no means represents the talent of the players below, just how well they’re playing right now. That said, if you’re interested in who to watch, this list should help you out.
Here is the live blog I did on the Italy-Slovakia match for Bleacher Report this morning. Crazy final 30 minutes but ultimately the defending world champs are out.
Ciao, I’m Ryan and I’ll be your live blogger for the Italy-Slovakia match. Hopefully I can provide some insight for you throughout the game, especially for those that aren’t getting a chance to watch it live.
Both Italy and Slovakia have the chance to move on from the group stage with a win, although Slovakia would also need New Zealand to tie or lose. However, with Italy being pre-tournament favourites for the group, the pressure is all on them.
The Azzurri defense has only given up two shots on goal in two games, but unfortunately for them, both have resulted in goals. On the other end of the field, the Italians have struggled mightily to create goals. While severely outplaying New Zealand, they still could only muster a goal from the penalty spot. The most notable change to Italy’s lineup will be the insertion of Rino Gattuso in the midfield, which should bring back fond memories for Italy fans, but also raise a few eyebrows.
The live blog is below, with the most recent posts at the top. Enjoy the match.
Team USA scored a dramatic injury-time goal to move on from Group C today. Reporters and analysts alike are praising Landon Donovan’s finish, Michael Bradley’s control of midfield and Jozy Altidore’s ability to be a mismatch for Algeria’s defenders. All three of these players made their mark, and Clint Dempsey also played extremely well until his final touch left him a few times.
Unfortunately, the man who has been given way too little credit is goalkeeper Tim Howard.
We recorded another podcast last night after a disastrous result for Italy vs New Zealand.
Here’s the synopsis:
In this desperate Pink shirt Wise Guys Podcast, Pete and Pops hit the panic button and plead for Marcello Lippi to smooth out the Azzurri’s scoring woes. The podcast provides many stats to prove that the offensive strategy of the Azzurri is flawed and needs to be revamped. The boys pick their starters for the do-or-die match versus Slovakia. Desperate times at the Pink Shirt Wise Guys podcast calls for desperate drinks!
To lighten the dark nature of the Azzurri World Cup situation, the three-ringed circus which is the French National team is discussed. From Raymond Domenech’s astrology strategy, Williams Gallas’ Eiffel tower-sized ego, Patrice Evra’s detective qualities, Franck Ribery’s under-aged prostitutes and Nicolas Anelka’s smooth-as-sandpaper personality to go with Mr Handball himself (Thierry Henry), France are the laughing stock of the football world. Once again France surrenders, this time at soccer not at war.
With England getting ready to put their World Cup hopes on the line against Slovenia, they are obviously searching for answers in their squad selection. Especially after scoring only 1 goal in two games against the USA and Algeria, they need a spark more than ever.
While many people are content to criticize the pairing of Gerrard and Lampard in midfield, it isn’t the problem. Both Lampard and Gerrard have been at their peaks in the EPL with space to roam and pick up stray clearances with first-class strikers ahead of them.
When defences are sagging back to defend against the likes of Fernando Torres or Didier Drogba, there is room for Lampard and Gerrard to operate.
Unfortunately, Fabio Capello has chosen Emile Heskey to lead his forward line with Wayne Rooney occupying the hole that either midfielder would step up into.
Heskey is a good player and a useful one, but possession football is best executed with midfielders who can pass and forwards who can drift to places on the pitch where there is space. Heskey provides a monument for defences to anchor around, leaving them only Rooney to track around the field.
I have to admit that I’m pretty excited today. The great people over at Puck Prospectus have agreed to publish one of my articles. A special thanks to Timo Seppa for all his ideas and help along with Andrew Rothstein for agreeing to publish it.
For those of you that have never been to PP’s site, definitely take a visit. They are one of the best sites on the web for taking a deeper look at the game of hockey and all that it entails. For those familiar with Sabermetrics in baseball, this is the hockey equivalent.
The link for the article over on PP is right here.
If you’d like to read it here, I’ve reposted it below, but definitely give the guys at Puck Prostpectus a read, you won’t be disappointed.
Just like yesterday, I did a live blog for Bleacher Report on the Argentina-S.Korea game. Take a read below if you missed the game, or just want to see if I know what I’m talking about.
We’re well into the full swing of the World Cup. By the end of Wednesday’s games, each team will have played their opening match, and we’ll have a better idea of what each squad brings to the table.
Pete and I just completed another edition of the Pink Shirt Wise Guys podcast, evaluating Italy’s draw with Paraguay on Monday. You can jump to the podcast page or just use this link to download the episode directly.
In case you want even more info, I’ve been asked by Bleacher Report to do some live blogs for a few games, so I’ll post them here as well once the games are over.
The World Cup starts in less than 48 hours. As usual, Azzurri fans will be wringing their hands, having hushed conversations about Italy’s chances and sweating the team’s poor form leading up to the tournament.
They crashed out of the Confederations Cup early and haven’t looked great in the pre-tournament friendlies. That said, they managed to get through qualification without losing a game and finished first in Group Eight.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Italy squad’s strengths and weaknesses heading into the World Cup and their chances of repeating as champions.
Strengths
With Italy’s lack of dependence on one stellar player, this team can effectively mix and match their lineup until they find a combination or individual player who is on form and ready to steal the spotlight.
Marcello Lippi knows how to win. He has won league titles, a Champions League title and, most importantly, a World Cup. He has proven to be tactically diverse and can win without having the superior talent in a match.
There are at least 7 players on this year’s squad who played a major role in winning the World Cup in 2006. There are several others who were on the squad, but didn’t play major roles at the time. This experience, if coupled with youthful energy, could help Italy through some tough games.
While some countries have to pull players from weaker domestic leagues or second-rate foreign leagues, this is not the case for the Azzurri. All of Italy’s players ply their trade in a top-notch European league and are therefore used to playing top-level competition.
There was a collective sigh on the peninsula when Italy found out they would be in a group with New Zealand, Paraguay and the Slovakia. They are easily the most talented team in the group, so have a real chance to finish first or second.
Weaknesses
Unfortunately for Lippi’s squad, they have looked terrible in the two friendlies leading up to the World Cup. Mexico dominated the run of play against them and Switzerland played them to a disappointing draw that highlighted some of their weaknesses.
They left their most offensively creative players at home, and it may hurt them. Fabrizio Miccoli, Antonio Cassano, and Fancesco Totti are all among the Serie A leaders in Assists per 90 minutes of play, and yet they were all left off the squad. Lippi selected three of Italy’s best finishers in Pazzini, Di Natale and Iaquinta, but may not have anyone to provide them the proper service.
Despite having a central defensive trio of Fabio Cannavaro, Georgio Chiellini and Gigi Buffon, who play together at Juventus, the defense looks disorganized and frequently out of place. As we heavily debated on the Pink Shirt Wise Guys podcast, it may be time to add someone new into Cannavaro’s place.
In the last friendly against Switzerland, Lippi had the Azzurri line up in a traditional 4-4-2 shape. Unfortunately, Italy doesn’t have the wide midfielders on this squad to run such a formation effectively. The players on this team are likely better suited to a 4-3-1-2 or a 4-2-3-1, depending on the opponent.
Predictions
The Castrol Index gives Italy a 3.7% chance of winning the World Cup, a 17.9% chance of getting to the Semi-Finals and a 43.8% chance of making the Quarter Finals.
Given the pros and cons above, I don’t see it being too difficult for the Azzurri to qualify from their group.
If Italy wins their first knockout round, they could face Spain, Portugal or Brazil in the second knockout round (quarterfinals), depending on how the other groups shake out.
Realistically, I could see Italy in the quarter finals but will need a phenomenal game to knock off the likes of Brazil, Spain or Portugal. Italy will have to draw on all their tactical variety and discipline to pull off the upset.
My prediction is for the Azzurri to lose in penalty kicks in the quarterfinals, but I hope they can gel in time to make me look stupid.
Just thought I’d throw up a quick comparison of Arsenal’s new 6’1″, 154 lb (yes, you read that correctly) striker from Bordeaux. I was curious to see how he compared to Arsenal’s other offensive players.
Is he the saviour? You tell me.
It looks like his primary use could be as depth behind RVP and Bendtner, but I’m still looking forward to phrases like “Laying the Chamakh down” or chants of “Chamakh my b!tch up”.
After watching the ‘Hawks appear to decimate the Flyers in Game 5, I couldn’t help but think that the last few games had seemed so different from the beginning of the series. The ‘Hawks just seemed more aggressive with the puck and appeared to control the play more. Now if I was a TV announcer, I would have just declared my opinion to be the truth. But much to Don Cherry’s eternal hatred, I decided to look into a few stats to either prove my intuition or realize that I’m delusional.
Here are a few of the more pertinent game stats for those of us who believe that directing more shots at the opposition is a great way to win a hockey game.
A couple things stick out at first glance. For starters, the save percentage is all over the place for both teams, and neither one is particularly flattering. Secondly, the Blackhawks have absolutely dominated the faceoffs over the course of the series, which has to translate into mroe possession.
Also, if we were evaluating offensive output the way most people traditionally do, using shots, then it would appear that the Blackhawks only got a bit better over game 4 and 5. But if we used Corsi and Fenwick numbers to evaluate shots directed towards goal, it tells a different story.
By adding up the ‘Hawks shots, shots that were blocked and shots that missed the net, we get a better picture of how many pucks were directed at the Flyers net. Game 1 was only 46, Game 2 was 52, Game 3 was 62, Game 4 was 77 and Game 5 was 62. Frankly, they were on a different level in games 3-5 than in games 1 and 2. Now obviously none of this matters if the Flyers were also putting more pucks towards goal.
Also, since Corsi and Fenwick ratios have shown to be strongly correlated to winning in the NHL over the long-term, what were the results for Chicago? Here is a summary from Chicago’s point of view.
While Chicago’s possession ratios (Corsi & Fenwick) show a marked improvement, it hasn’t been a very strong correlation to wins in the series. However, the difference in Save % between Chicago and Philly has.
This should come as no surprise given the extreme swings in save percentage. In the NHL this season, Tuuka Rask led the league with a 93.1% stop rate while Mikka Kiprusoff was 10th with 92.0% and Dwayne Roloson was 30th with 90.7%. From the best goaltender to the 30th-best, was only a 2.4% difference. In the course of an 82 game season, that 2.4% edge can be made up by “outshooting” an opponent.
In a short series, where every game counts, a major swing in either one can be an absolute game-changer. This is the reason why many “experts” will tout the fact that a hot goalie can carry a team in the playoffs. If you need an further explanation, I believe I ranted about it enough after the Montreal-Washington series.
This series may not be a case of one goalie harnessing the powers of the hockey gods, but rather which goalie doesn’t suck on any given night. Obviously repeated shot attempts at goal will help, but with two below-replacement goalies at their disposal, the Flyers are outmatched in net by Niemi, despite the fact he only finished 20th in Save Percentage this season.
The Blackhawks surging possession game may still be the deciding factor in one of the final two games, but for now their fortune seems to rest on the less-than-stellar shoulders of either Leighton or Boucher.
For most of us soccer fans, this week kicks off a few weeks of pure joy. For those that are more casual fans, the beginning of the tournament can be a little overwhelming if you’re not familiar with the teams or the players.
If you’re just now getting into the hype or just want more info to feed your appetite, I’ve got a few sources for you to ensure you’re up to date.
First of all, I have to recommend the Pink Shirt Wise Guys podcast. Yes, I’m in it, so obviously I’m pimping it, but I promise you’ll be entertained and informed. We covered each and every group and team of the tournament and just posted a new episode purely on Italy’s chances based on their two warm-up matches against Mexico and Switzerland.
Second, I would recommend that you visit Zonal Marking if you’d like a deeper understanding of the strategies and formations of the different nations.
Third, there is an article on the World Cup’s Most Efficient Forwards here on Sports Opinionated in case you want to know who to watch around the net.
Finally, ESPN Soccernet has one of the best sites for the facts like squads, qualification results, game summaries, etc.
Take the next couple days and get prepped, because it’s going to be a fantastic tournament!
Inevitably, as we start to get excited about the World Cup being just around the corner, the arguments arise as to who will win the Golden Boot or score the nicest goal of the tournament. For casual fans, the forwards are the focal point, as they are the face of the team, due to a highlight-driven culture. There’s a reason that more people know who Wayne Rooney is instead of Xavi or Maicon, even if they’re just as talented.
I just love strikers because there is such a variety of players who are incredible entertainers and they achieve their impact in so many different ways.
In an effort to discern who the tournament’s most efficient attacking players are, we can compare them using SOAR from this past league season with their clubs. SOAR is a way to measure the total offensive impact of a player. For a full explanation of SOAR, click here.
Here are the top 10 forwards by SOAR in World Cup 2010.
Obviously the top 2 are no surprise to most people. What should be surprising, however, is the actual SOAR value of Messi. He was head and shoulders above any other forward in the world this year. If you compare him to the top strikers in Serie A this season, his SOAR was over 60% higher than the best in Italy!
Not only was his SOAR incredible, but his expected SOAR was 1.404, which means he out-finished the average striker based on the chances he had. All that and he still created more chances than anyone not nicknamed C-Ron.
The surprise of the top 10 is definitely Oscar Cardozo of Paraguay who played this past season at Benfica. Cardozo is either the most clinical striker in the world with 25 goals from 30 shots on goal, or had some incredible luck against a slightly lower level of competition than those that played in the bigger European leagues. I am leaning towards the latter.
Group G will host 3 of the top 10 forwards with Cristiano Ronaldo, Didier Drogba and Luis Fabiano all trying to avoid being a victim of the Group of Death.
The forwards who ranked from 10 to 20 are as follows:
Many will be surprised to see Wayne Rooney and Diego Miltio outside the top 10 given their incredible talent. Rooney’s biggest issue likely is the lack of elite offensive talent on his side at Man U, compared to the players that Messi, Ronaldo and Higuain get to play with. However, a Rooney partnership with Jermain Defoe for England would still be one of the best in the tournament.
Looking at Milito, Tevez and Aguero in this list, paired with Messi and Higuain above, it is amazing to think that Argentina has 5 of the 20 most efficient forwards in the World Cup! If they can find a way to incorporate at least 3 of them at any given time, they should see more net than a school of tuna.
As for a surprise, I’m sure many fans would list David Villa as one of Spain’s top 2 forwards alongside Fernando Torres, but he ranked 23rd overall with his compatriot Pedro from Barcelona slipping into the top 20. Pedro may be a product of a stacked Barcelona squad, but doesn’t earning a starting role mean he has immense talent?
Giampaolo Pazzini’s ranking of 11th and his placing of first among Serie A starters would seem to be at odds with Marcello Lippi’s penchant for starting Alberto Gilardino in the matches leading up to the tournament.
If there are other comparisons you would like to see or players I haven’t shown, by all means, leave a request in the comments section and I’ll get back to you.
In his selection of the most offensively challenged Azzurri in decades or maybe ever, Marcello Lippi has began reciting excuses. Today’s loss to a more conditioned and much more prepared Mexican side poses the question: What the hell have the Azzurri been doing for the past 2 weeks?
Criticism of a World Cup winning coach is largely unheard of. In Italy however, criticism is as normal as a male wearing a pink shirt or a child with a cell phone to its ear. In a country where they criticize everyone from the Pope to their Prime Minister (both perhaps, deservingly so), they have been very critical of the Azzurri and their World Cup winning coach. Marcello Lippi has had an avalanche of criticism from Italians and media culprits alike. Over a morning espresso or an evening pizza, Italians have doubted their Azzurri leader since the disappointment at last years Confederations Cup where following losses from Brazil and Egypt, Italy failed to make it out of the group stage. If the Confederations Cup started the snowball rolling, the loss to Mexico has now created a tremor that has begun a media avalanche.
After refusing to select some of Italy’s most explosive and younger talents (Fabrizio Miccoli, Antonio Cassano, Francesco Totti, Mario Balotelli, Giuseppe Rossi), Italy looked old, slow and predicable on Thursday night in Belgium. The 2 to 1 score iwas extremely flattering for the Azzurri. At one point El Tri had more than 65% of the possession. The Mexicans not only passed around the ball and made the Italians resort to chasing them around aimlessly, they had explosive speed and creativity up front. Speed and creativity are two traits in which the Azzurri will not be known for at this World Cup, largely thanks to Lippi. Resorting to diving for fouls and generating scoring chances from set pieces, the defending World Cup champions lacked any offensive creativity and at times, looked lost.
How was it that, as mentioned on the Pink Shirt Wise Guys World Cup Podcast, a relatively weak midfield of Mexico was able to control possession and dictate the pace of the game? How is it that when you have a formation in which there is only one lone striker upfront, you resort to crossing the ball into the box from wide positions? How is it that one can leave the offensively creative likes of Miccoli and Cassano at home in favour of fishing for fouls and generating offense through set-pieces?
These are only a few questions Azzurri fans now have to add to their repertoire of criticisms. It was hard to avoid the obvious disappointment and embarrassment on Marcello Lippi’s face while he conducted his post-game interviews. Instead of admitting that the Mexican team was a better team on the day and obviously more prepared physically and tactically, he instead decided to pull out his book of excuses.
He turned to chapter 9, blame team conditioning and preparations.
“We played a side that has already played seven friendlies, so was obviously in better shape. We had heavy legs and it’s not important to be in good shape now, but rather in about 10 days. If we too had played seven games without training or focusing on fitness work, then we’d be playing well right now too.”
In other words, it wasn’t the superior offensive talent or the younger, more enthusiastic squad or the better tactically sound team that won. The more prepared team won.
Now whose fault is that then?
If Marcello Lippi believes that this squad is a team that can compete for the World Cup trophy, I certainly hope his offensive strategy isn’t relying on diving and set pieces. If so, it’s too bad the FIGC can’t place Cesare Prandelli as manager right away.
It’s a topic we all love discussing, and we all have different opinions about. Some of us would rather see a pure poacher in the lineup while others believe that target men are the most effective and still more believe that a striker who plays well with the ball at his feet is essential.
We can debate the merits of Antonio Di Natale or Fabrizio Miccoli until we’re blue in the face. Well, I’ve decided to add some fuel to the fire with the Sports Opinionated Attack Rating (SOAR). If you’d like an explanation of how it’s created, here is a full one.
In short, I’ve used some basic attacking stats like goals, assists, shots on goal and times fouled to estimate the attacking impact of every forward in Serie A as if they played 90 minutes every game to equalize for playing time.
This was a hotly debated topic going into the CL final, and there still seem to be many who would love to continue the debate. In order to stir the pot a little more, take a look at this table.
Keep in mind that SOAR only shows the offensive impact a player has had, so it won’t account for the amount of tracking back and defensive work that Pandev and Eto’o performed so well on the season.
The most obvious thing that jumps out, is how effective Super Mario Balotelli was when he was on the pitch. In fact, he had the highest SOAR rating in all of Serie A. What makes Balotelli so effective is that he’s so versatile. He gets a high number of balls on the net, is adept at finding others for an easy goal and has an amazing ability to draw fouls when the ball is at his feet, as we discussed on the Pink Shirt Wise Guys podcast.
The interesting notion to me, as well was that while Pandev and Eto’o essentially performed the same role, it was Pandev that was much more effective offensively. The main concern seems to be Eto’o’s ability to hit the net. He was only on target 34% of the time, which was lower than any other Inter forward and well below the league average of 44.6%.
Should Milan really try to buy another striker this summer?
This is my own personal “scratch my eyeballs out with a chopstick” topic. It continues to infuriate me that the AC Milan brain trust seem to be shopping for a striker while there are massive holes in midfield and the back line. Assuming that their new coach continues to deploy a system where Ronaldinho and Pato are wingers or support strikers, does Milan need a new player up front?
At first glance, I may have to eat my words in many ways. For starters, Ronaldinho was highly effective over large minutes, which is much harder to do than be highly effective over limited minutes.
Apparently my incessant moaning for Huntelaar to get more playing time has been unfounded.
The Expected SOAR (eSOAR) is calculated just using a players SOG, not their actual goals. It’s a measure of the player’s ability to get in dangerous positions, while the SOAR was the measure of what they did in those positions. In this case, both Huntelaar and Borriello did very little to put themselves in good positions, but made the most of those positions, either through great finishing, a bit of luck or a combination of both.
Most of the top strikers have a rating in the range of 0.850 to 1.100, so it’s actually feasible that Milan could get good value out of a top notch finisher. I will now staple my mouth shut.
Which strikers should start for Italy in the World Cup?
Given that I write about sports, obviously my favorite hobby is criticizing coaches. In this case, I’m not going to debate the merits of who Marcello Lippi selected, but I would like to evaluate the players he has at his disposal.
As you can see, and most people already believed, Gianpaolo Pazzini is clearly Italy’s most effective strike option. Not only did he score, but he drew an immense amount of fouls from opposing defenders.
The question will be whether Lippi decides to play a trident or a strike partnership.
With Iaquinta’s back injury, he may not be available, and probably isn’t a good partner for Pazzini anyway given their similar styles. That said, he should be the first choice substitution if he’s healthy.
Di Natale seems to be an automatic starter, whether on the left side or floating behind Pazzini. He scored at an amazing rate and added 6 assists as well. He’s a given.
Marco Borriello needs to be the next cut from this team. While his SOAR is decent, his eSOAR tells me he doesn’t create dangerous opportunities. Having watched him all year, this seems absolutely correct. I would much rather see both Giuseppe Rossi and Fabio Quagliarella in the squad.
Which starter had the best season in Serie A?
By “starter”, I’m going to assume a cutoff of 2250 minutes which represents two-thirds of the minutes available to a player in Serie A. As I stated above, it is much harder to play at a high level over a multitude of games, than to do it for the last 30 minutes of every game. This filter eliminates the likes of Pato, Totti and Balotelli, who are all immensely talented but weren’t durable or couldn’t hold their temper enough to stay on the pitch.
Below are the top 10 in Serie A this year.
The top 6 players shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who watched much Serie A this season. All of these players were the headline grabbers throughout the year and their SOAR seems to confirm what we see with our own eyes.
Players 7 through 10, however, sure jumped out at me. I wasn’t surprised to see Vucinic in the hunt as he’s had a phenomenal season, but the other 3 wouldn’t be the players I believe most Serie A fans would list off the top of their head.
Neither Lavezzi or Sanchez were very prolific in the scoring department, but they consistently drew fouls from opposing defenses, meaning they had the better of their defenders on a regular basis.
Massimo Maccarone on the other hand, had a phenomenal season for Sienna and would be a great player for the likes of Sampdoria to pick up to provide depth now that they’re in the Champions League next season.
Which small-club player is due to break out or move to a bigger club?
I eliminated all the European-bound teams and also Lazio, Udinese and Fiorentina as these clubs achieve a lot of exposure nationally. I left Parma in the mix, purely because they weren’t the subject of as many headlines as the rest.
I also required at least 1000 minutes of playing time to ensure that a few lucky goals our bounces didn’t sway the data too much.
Davide Lanzafame had an absolutely stellar season for Parma. He scored in limited minutes, chipped in some assists and was fouled at an alarming rate. For 8th place Parma to move into European contention next year, they need to rely on him more next season.
The Cagliari trio of Jeda, Nene and Matri all were very effective. In this case, it’s hard to tell whether they played in a particularly good offensive system, or if they really were that impressive. Either way, Cagliari is in good hands if they can hold onto at least two of the three, since Matri may get a chance at a bigger club.
While this may go against popular belief, I think Maxi Lopez may be a much more superior striker than the likes of Borriello. Their numbers may look similar in that they both seem to outperform their eSOAR, but Lopez hits the net at a much higher rate than Borriello, leading me to believe that he is a more accurate shooter.
Finally, Martins Adailton could be an interesting signing for a mid-level club like Bari who has a great defense and needs to add some firepower along with Barreto.
What’s next?
If there are scenarios you’d like me to compare using SOAR, let me know either in the comments or email me.
I would like to add crossing statistics to the mix, but at the moment it’s very hard to find reliable data for Serie A so please pass on any sources you may have.
I will likely be adding in players from other leagues throughout the summer and normalizing for the goals scored per game in each league.
At some point I will also start using SOAR to show the attacking value of different midfielders and fullbacks but would like to have crossing stats first given that it’s a much bigger part of their game.
I can’t lie to you, I was awesome in the conference finals. No, I didn’t actually play any games, but I picked those series bang on. Sure a monkey or a coin could do the same thing 25% of the time, but just let me gloat. Just a little more….a few more minutes….OK, I’m good, let’s move on.
If you missed my reviews of the conference finals, check out the East right here and the West here. I’ll be using the same style of breakdown, so it would be worth it for you to read them. If you need any stat explanations, just check out our glossary here.
Chicago vs Philadelphia
The best part about watching these two teams duel for the Cup is that at least one of these two great fan bases will be celebrating a cup win. Actually, the best part would be if the Blackhawks won and the Leafs were now the NHL team with the longest Cup-less streak. But that’s just being selfish on my part.
The Hawks have a +2.5 Fenwick/60 minutes at Even Strength (ES) so far in the playoffs, compared to Philly’s -6.0 F/60. This tells us that during 5-on-5 play, we’re more likely to see the puck in the Flyers end of the ice. That said, the Flyers have a slight edge in +/- at ES so far in the play-offs despite being a vastly inferior team to the Hawks in the regular season. Expect their performance to regress at some point. I give the edge at ES to Chicago.
On the power play, both clubs have been fantastic in both the regular season and the playoffs. The Blackhawks have had a little more luck with the extra man than Philly. On the penalty-kill, however, Chicago has been the best 4-on-5 team in the league in both the regular season and the playoffs while the Flyers have dramatically outperformed their regular season mark. The ‘Hawks PK gives them the edge here too.
In net, both goaltenders have been dramatically outplaying their regular season performance in the playoffs. Leighton has a 94.7% save rate at ES in the playoffs versus a 89.4% regular season clip.
Niemi on the other hand has a 92.2% ES save rate in the playoffs versus his 90.6% regular season number. It’s unlikely that either player can keep up the fantastic run, but Leighton likely has a lot farther to fall from his current perch. Again, I’d give the edge to the Blackhawks.
As for individual players, there are still a few that seem to stick out.
Despite Dustin Byfuglien’s fantastically “clutch” play against San Jose, he’s still due for big production in the finals. I called it that way in the Conference Finals and I’m calling it again. Byfuglien is still at a Corsi of +22.6 / 60 minutes and a tiny PDO of 932.
As for the Flyers, I’m going to tag Ville Leino for a reverse-breakout in the series. Leino is definitely one of Philly’s best possession-driving forwards with a Corsi of +5.1 / 60 but is currently sporting a PDO of 1068 on the back of a 13.7% shooting percentage. These results are likely the result of some luck, so I don’t see Leino continuing this level of performance.
In the end, it seems painfully obvious to me that the Blackhawks have the edge in this series, so I’m picking them to win. That said, the Canadiens were the same type of underdog to both the Capitals and Penguins. Hopefully we all get an entertaining final, everyone except Leaf fans that is.
While the playoffs are in full gear, a fairly interesting piece of news was announced in the NHL in the last week. Nicklas Backstrom signed a 10-year deal with the Washington Capitals that ensures they have their top pair of he and Alex Ovechkin intact for a very long time.
At first, $67 million over 10 years seemed like a lot of cash to me to commit to a 22-year-old but I’ve definitely been impressed when I’ve watched Backstrom play.
It’s not that the contract looks like another DiPietro special, but I decided to dive into this performance a little just to see what his numbers have been like for his first 3 years in the league. Continue reading Evaluating Nicklas Backstrom’s New Contract
Ever since the World Cup in 2006, there has only ever been one name I would have had stitched only my Italy jersey. Most people would naturally assume that name would be Andrea Pirlo, Gianluigi Buffon, Alessandro Del Piero or Fabio Cannavaro for their outstanding performances.
Some Italians would undoubtedly have Francesco Totti’s name adorning the Azzurri blue, but as we’ve discussed on the Pink Shirt Wise Guys podcast, the peninsula’s obsession with Totti escapes me.
I’ve always loved players like Gianluca Zambrotta and Gennaro Gattuso, but they don’t make the cut for my jersey either.
The man who has forever earned a place in my footballing heart is none other than Fabio Grosso. Grosso doesn’t appear to be the savior of a country’s hopes when you see him, but he will go down in Azzurri history in the same way that Paul Henderson does for Hockey Canada.
With his departure from the Azzurri, it seemed fitting that we take a look at his improbable run to national hero in 2006.
As the starting left back for Palermo, Grosso made the Azzurri, primarily as a substitute and backup for Cristian Zaccardo and didn’t make it into the starting lineup until Zaccardo was pulled after the game versus the USA.
While Grosso was a very good player for Italy, bombing up and down the left flank, he was far from a dominant player all tournament. What makes him stick out in my mind is that he came up big when Italy needed him the most. He was the most prominent player in the biggest plays in each of Italy’s final 3 games, all when the game was on the line.
I nicknamed him the “Iceman” after his stellar games versus Australia and Germany and he vindicated the moniker in the final against France.
Vs Australia (Round of 16)
In a game that Italy largely dominated the scoring chances, the Australian team had kept it close until Grosso drew the deciding penalty for Totti to convert.
While there was some controversy around the penalty drawn by Grosso, the fact remains that Neill didn’t get the ball and impeded Grosso’s path by bodying one of his legs. Neill didn’t intend it, but Grosso’s fabulous cut inside drew the foul, and his timing was impeccable. He either had a free run to goal, or Neill would have to impede him. In this case he drew the penalty.
Much like a basketball player who continually gets into the lane, getting the ball into the box is placing the other team on their heels. They have to make a very good tackle, risk the penalty or give up a chance. Grosso continually put defenses on their heels throughout the tournament.
Vs Germany (Semi-Finals)
Grosso helped create several chances pushing forward up the left, but will forever be remembered for scoring the winning goal in extra time on a first-touch, curling shot to the far post that was practically untouchable for goaltender Jens Lehman.
The goal decided what was one of the most entertaining and suspenseful World Cup matches in years.
His celebration after the goal was also a classic display of pure joy and excitement that will be shown on highlight clips for years.
This shows the highlights of the whole game, but jump to the 7:45 mark to see Grosso’s goal.
This video shows the goal from Grosso’s angle, giving you an appreciation of how truly unstoppable it was.
Vs France (Finals)
While Grosso wasn’t quite as influential as he had been in previous games, he was still chosen by Lippi to be Italy’s final penalty shooter, showing the confidence the team had in him to perform under pressure.
I remember being incredibly tense as a spectator and instantly loosening up when I saw Grosso walking to the penalty spot. Inside, all I could think was “it’s OK, the Iceman’s got this one” and I would regularly be considered a sports pessimist.
There are very few athletes who can project this type of confidence in their supporters and it’s a perfect way to describe the stamp Grosso put on this World Cup.
Grosso’s goal can be watched from the 6:00 mark.
While Grosso has had to make way for younger and more in-form talent on the Azzurri, he will forever be remembered as he man who sealed the World Cup for Italy in ’06, three times.
As we talked about on the Pink Shirt Wise Guys podcast earlier this week, it seems like a foregone conclusion that Inter will beat Bayern for the UEFA Champions League title this Saturday. While no game is ever a sure thing, there are 5 players who will play key roles for Inter in the match.
#5. Mario Balotelli
While Balotelli can be ripe for an implosion, he is also the most mercurial, game-changing talent on the pitch. His combination of size, speed, ball control and finish is a handful for any defense, especially the shaky defense of Bayern Munich.
Balotelli is much more likely to be used as a sub than a starter, but could be in line for a late goal. He has the best “goals per 90 min” rate of any Inter player.
#4. Douglas Maicon
With Franck Ribery suspended for the Final, Maicon is likely to breath the biggest sigh of relief. Even though Ribery has been less effective than in past years, he still forces the fullback on his side to play almost entirely in a defensive role. Maicon should be able to push forward and create offense without having as much defensive responsibility (apologies to Hamit Altintop).
#3. Wesley Sneijder
Although there are doubts about Sneijder’s health for the final, he is crucial nonetheless. He is the one true creator on Inter and would draw all of Mark van Bommel’s attention, leaving the strikers to pick apart Bayern’s weak central defensive partnership.
#2. Diego Milito
Milito has been nothing short of sensational this year. He has found the net when Inter needed it most, most notably to seal the Scudetto on the final Sunday of play. With 28 goals in all competitions (and 4 in Champions League), he is the key offensive weapon in Mourinho’s arsenal. #1. Javier Zanetti
Zanetti has been employed both as a left back and as a holding midfielder this season by Mourinho. No matter where he has played, he’s found a way to shut down the opposition’s best playmaker. He combined with Chivu to shut down the dynamic duo of Dani Alves and Lionel Messi and took Anelka out of the match against Chelsea.
Bayern have been almost entirely dependent on Arjen Robben’s timely goals throughout the Champions League, and if Zanetti can once again shackle his man, then this contest is over.
