The reason I wanted to explore the contract value was the initial reaction so many people had to the dollar figure.  I personally felt it was WAY too much [...] No related posts.]]> Here is the latest analysis I wrote for the great team at Puck Prospectus.  Feel free to read it over there with this link or continue reading below. 

The reason I wanted to explore the contract value was the initial reaction so many people had to the dollar figure.  I personally felt it was WAY too much at first, but have come around to believing it was a Kesler-level deal, which is decent, but not over the top either.  Enjoy.

In a league that just saw Nathan Horton and Dustin Byfuglien traded while Henrik Sedin improbably won the Hart Trophy, we bring you something much more intriguing on Front Office Focus- the contract given to Tomas Plekanec.

Okay, so the trades are pretty darn interesting too, but the Plekanec contract gives fans and front offices a lot to think about. This is essentially the money Les Habitants saved in the Halak deal and represents the only real cap room they have to play with outside of Carey Price’s long-term deal.

TSN reported that “The stocky centre opted to forego unrestricted free agency to sign a US $30 million six-year contract on Tuesday. He will make $5 million each year of the deal, which includes a no-trade clause.”

While Plekanec had a great year and a very strong performance in Montreal’s playoff run, does he deserve $5M per year?

If I told you that Plekanec would be making similar money to the following players, would you say he’s worth it? Here’s the list with their current cap hit, courtesy of CapGeek.

Player             Cap Hit
Brian Gionta       $5.0M
Ryan Getzlaf       $5.3M
Marc Savard        $4.0M
Damond Langkow     $4.5M
Patrick Sharp      $3.9M
Mike Ribeiro       $5.0M
Brendan Morrow     $4.1M
Daniel Alfredsson  $4.9M
Mike Fisher        $4.2M
Mike Richards      $5.8M
Shane Doan         $4.6M
Phil Kessel        $5.4M
Ryan Kesler        $5.0M

Surprisingly, Plekanec had a better GVT (14.6) in 2009-10 than nine of the thirteen players on that list. Using this very basic comparison, it could be concluded that Plekanec’s deal is in a reasonable range. That said, we might want to look at a few more metrics. No one buys a car based purely on consumer rating and price, they want to know about mileage, safety features, navigation systems, and so on. In the same vein of thought, we need to look at some of the underlying statistics for Plekanec’s performance before we decide if he got an efficient deal.

These six players appeared to be the closest, and most interesting, comparisons to Plekanec based on GVT and cap hit.

Gionta was chosen because he and Plekanec play in the same system and with the same teammates. Getzlaf is considered an elite player, but on the surface appears to have a similar contract value. Sharp’s contract was the most efficient of the group selected. Richards was a player with a similarly deep playoff run. Kessel and Kesler are both considered elite young talent, so they provide another angle of comparison.

Looking at the table, it’s easy to see that Plekanec represents the 3rd-best GVT-per-$M of the group. He produced the second most points in the group but alarmingly was subpar in the Corsi department. That would be easy to blame on Montreal’s defense-first and counter-attack system, but the Corsi gap with Gionta is better explained by the massive gap in Zone Starts.

While Plekanec’s contract appears favorable using only last year’s performance as a guide, it would be a mistake to focus on what was a career year for him.

I’ve further narrowed the group down to comparable players, but focused on their performance over the least 3 years.

Once we include data from the last 3 seasons, the picture becomes a little more clear. Plekanec’s contract definitely seems favorable to that of his teammate, Gionta. He is younger and has outperformed him in every category except Corsi, but Zone Starts explain that to some degree.

It becomes very apparent that Richards had an off year in 2009-10 and that Plekanec is not the same quality of player, especially when Richards’ negative zone starts are considered.

Ryan Kesler is likely the best contractual comparison for Plekanec at this point. I would say that Kesler is a slightly better value, given his huge Corsi advantage and the fact that Kesler has more defensive duties as indicated by Zone Starts.

When it was first announced, I wondered if Plekanec’s deal was a little too generous, but there are obvious comparables in the league. The 6-year length is too long in my mind, and the no-trade clause is a bit extravagant for a top 6, but non-elite forward. That said, Plekanec was due to be an unrestricted free agent, so the Canadiens didn’t have the leverage they would have liked. It’s not a mistake by Montreal, but it’s not a steal either.

The real question will be who else they use to fill out the roster with roughly eight spots to fill and only $9 million to spend.

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The majority of the talent available this year is definitely on the defensive side of the ball, but there are probably some excellent bargains to be had on the offensive side.  Unless [...] No related posts.]]> With free agency only a few days away, teams are making difficult decisions on who could help their team on the free agent market.

The majority of the talent available this year is definitely on the defensive side of the ball, but there are probably some excellent bargains to be had on the offensive side.  Unless you’re looking for a quarterback, and then you’re out of luck.

Here are our top 10 offensive free agents, based on what they could bring to the team that signs them for the price they would cost.  This rules out players like Terell Owens who will surely want top money, without the production to back it up:

#10 – Mike Gandy, T

Gandy has been a starting tackle for 5 straight years now, and is still only 31 years old.  Every offensive line needs a veteran player with starting experience and Gandy will probably come for a reasonable price.

Possible Destinations:

San Fran, Seattle and Cincy all have playoff aspirations and were in the bottom third of Adjusted Line Yards last year.

#9 – Casey Rabach, C

A veteran center who has started at least 15 games for the past 6 seasons.  At 32 years old he would still be a valuable member of any team hoping to make the playoffs next year.

Possible Destinations:

San Fran, Seattle and Cincy all have playoff aspirations and were in the bottom third of Adjusted Line Yards last year.

#8 – Brian Westbrook, RB

He is definitely past his prime, but Westbrook would be an excellent third down back with great play-off experience and the ability to fill in for he starter in case of injury.

Possible Destinations:

If the Vikings lose Chester Taylor, Westbrook would be a great fit for a team making a play-off run.  He might also be able to mentor Adrian Peterson on ball security.

#7– Ben Watson, TE

Watson has never quite lived up to his potential.  That said, he provides a deep threat down the middle, averaged 14 yds per catch last year and has played deep into the playoffs several times.  He should also come at the price of a 2^nd tier TE.

Possible Destinations:

Both the Titans and Bengals could use a more vertical threat in the passing game.

#6– Chester Taylor, RB

Taylor is now 30 years old but only has a fraction of the miles on his odometer that most starting backs his age do.  He’s an excellent receiver, pass blocker and had 1200 yards rushing his only year as a full-time starter.  He’s the perfect all-purpose #2 back, especially for a team with a young starter.

Possible Destinations:

Given that he would be a best fit with a playoff team just trying to add some depth to their offense, he could easily wind up in New England or San Diego for the right price.  Both are pass-oriented offenses which is a great fit for Taylor’s skill set.

#5– Kevin Mawae, C

Mawae is a veteran player who has started 14 games or more in 15 of his 16 seasons in the NFL.  He’s been a Pro-Bowler 8 times and an All-Pro three times.  He’s definitely on the downside of his career at 39 years old, but could give a team who needs leadership on the line a few solid years.

Possible Destinations:

As I stated above, the 49ers, Seahawks and Bengals all have play-off hopes and could use someone of Mawae’s pedigree.

#4– Nate Burleson, WR

Burleson is more of a #2 receiver, but brings ability in the return game as well.  He is only 28 years old and would provide spark to a team that needs a solid complementary or slot receiver.  Last year he caught 63 balls despite playing a large part of the season with Seneca Wallace as his quarterback.

Possible Destinations:

Burleson is best as a complementary receiver so could fit well in Carolina next to Steve Smith or Kansas City alongside Dwayne Bowe.

#3– Antonio Bryant, WR

It’s hard to believe that Bryant is only 28 years old given the number of times his career has been up and down.  It’s a clear indicator of this year’s free agency class that he’s our #4 pick on offense.  That said, he shouldn’t command a top salary, yet still has the ability to be a go-to player on offense.  Even on a terrible Tampa team, he averaged 15 yards a catch.  He’s very capable of catching 70 balls and topping 1000 yards when he’s healthy.

Possible Destinations:

Bryant is a good fit for receiver-needy teams who can’t wait for a draft pick to develop.  The Ravens, Bears and Titans could all consider him to give their passing offense some teeth.

#2– Thomas Jones, RB

While most running backs show signs of slipping as they hit 30, Jones is still going strong at age 31.  His high bonus and the emergence of Shonn Greene caused the Jet to cut him, but he could be very valuable to the right team.  Jones is best used as a back who gets 20 carries a game and grinds out the tough yards on the ground.  He’s not going to break many long runs, but will his tough running style ensures steady gains.

Possible Destinations:

Jones would be a good fit in an offense that could use some toughness in the running game.  San Diego might be a good fit if paired with another back from the draft.  He would also be an extremely good complement to Justin Forsett in Seattle.

#1– Darren Sproles, RB

It may seem odd to have a running back who’s career highs are 343 rushing yards and 497 receiving yards in a season as the best offensive free agent available.  We disagree.  Sproles is an extremely explosive offensive weapon who managed 7 touchdowns on only 138 offensive touches last year.  If he was used as a complementary back with 15 touches per game, it’s easy to imagine him contributing over 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns.  He’s only 26 years old, has very little mileage and was the most dangerous receiver out of the backfield in the entire NFL last year.

Possible Destinations:

Sproles needs to be integrated into an offense that already has a feature back, but could use a versatile home-run threat.  New England’s pass-happy offense would be a good fit.  He would be a huge upgrade to the 3^rd down package in Cincinnati and would probably be a Mike Martz favorite in Chicago.

 Tomorrow, we’ll feature the Top 10 Unrestricted Free Agents on Defense.

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