Popular Posts
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What is Darrelle Revis Worth to the Jets?
Revis Island can be a lonely place for receivers. At the moment it’s also a lonely place for a Darrelle Revis. The man who was hands-down the best defensive player in the league last year is not practicing or spending time with his teammates, and it HAS to be a frustrating way to follow up [...]
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Ponikarovsky Signing Gives LA a Line of Corsi Kings
For those of us that believe outshooting the opponent is the most surefire way to victory in the NHL, the LA Kings signing of Alexei Ponikarovsky should set off fireworks.
In his book, Moneyball, Michael Lewis referred to Kevin Youkilis’ as “The Greek God of Walks”. For NHL GMs, Ponikarovsky could be Ukrainian for “Net-peppering Ninja”.
I [...]
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Sports Opinionated is 1 Year Old!!!
Exactly one year ago, I decided to start the Sports Opinionated blog over on Blogger.com. The goal was to give myself a creative outlet to express my many views on sports, whether misguided or fact-based.
My goal when I started was to write 2-3 posts per week on anything that I was passionate about and to [...]
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The NHL’s Most Intriguing Free Agents
Let’s put it this way. I don’t give a flying puck where LeBron is going on July 1st. I care about celebrating Canada Day and seeing where NHL free agents end up. As a fan, there are always players that are more fun to track than others, since they could have a big impact on [...]
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Published on Puck Prospectus: The Tomas Plekanec Contract
Here is the latest analysis I wrote for the great team at Puck Prospectus. Feel free to read it over there with this link or continue reading below.
The reason I wanted to explore the contract value was the initial reaction so many people had to the dollar figure. I personally felt it was WAY too much [...]
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by Ryan Popilchak
With news that Cristobal Huet is headed to Switzerland to play for HC Fribourg-Gotteron, the Huet Haters are becoming more vocal than Don Cherry and Pierre McGuire combined.
While it’s easy to say that he didn’t live up to expectations in Chicago the past two seasons, the question remains as to how good Huet really is and whether there is a spot for him in the NHL. The Blackhawks obviously couldn’t move him, so was it his talent, or just his $5.6m cap hit? Continue reading Cristobal Huet’s Exile – Talent or Money?
by Ryan Popilchak
an article I posted at Matchsticks & Gasoline this week
Last week I proposed a few trades the Flames could potentially make in order to get both under the cap and to add a prospect.
All trades aside, I am ridiculously curious to see what the line combinations will be for the Flames this year.
There are a variety of questions that need to be answered. Who plays with Iginla? Does Backlund get meaningful icetime? How will Conroy be used? Which forwards should be matched up against the opposition’s best? Will anyone from Abbottsford get a regular call-up?
With that in mind, I started bouncing line combinations around in that empty space I call a head, just to see what came out. Continue reading Flames Potential Forward Line Combinations: posted on M&G
by Ryan Popilchak
This article was posted originally on Matchsticks & Gasoline. I have signed on as an author at this fantastic Flames’ blog, so come on by and check it out.
I’m obsessed with the behavior of GMs and how they handle the salary cap. It’s amazing how many teams are run by men who can only see the “now” and rarely plan for the future. Unfortunately for the Flames and all of their fans, it appears that Darryl Sutter is one of these executives.
My assertion is that he doesn’t do it on purpose, but because he has a poor track record with the draft. Entry-level contracts are inherently great for cap management and as Gabe Desjardins has frequently stated, RFA’s come at a 40% discount to UFA’s.
Obviously if a GM has a poor draft, it also hurts the team’s cap situation for the life of two relatively cheap contracts. In Darryl’s case, he’s had nothing to brag about from his drafts other than Phaneuf.
My Plan
Given the Flames current cap situation of being overspent by $2.35M (according to CapGeek.com), they obviously have some work to do now just to stay away from NHL sanctions. That said, the front office braintrust could at least use this opportunity to re-stock the barren shelves.
We all know that no one wants Staios or Kotalik at their currently disgusting contracts. And as Kent Wilson pointed out so well, there just aren’t that many teams that actually need a high salary to reach the cap floor.
Obviously then, a pure “salary dump” is highly unlikely, even if the Flames sweetened the pot, which they have few assets to do anyway. If the owners will let Darryl bury these two cap anchors in the minors, that’s great, but it doesn’t make the team any better now or in the future. Also, there seems to be some insane belief that Staios adds something to the team, which makes me want to lick a belt sander. Continue reading Calgary Flames: Managing the Cap and Re-Stocking the Cupboard
by Ryan Popilchak
For those of us that believe outshooting the opponent is the most surefire way to victory in the NHL, the LA Kings signing of Alexei Ponikarovsky should set off fireworks.
In his book, Moneyball, Michael Lewis referred to Kevin Youkilis’ as “The Greek God of Walks”. For NHL GMs, Ponikarovsky could be Ukrainian for “Net-peppering Ninja”.
I mentioned Ponikarovsky in an article about the NHL’s Most Intriguing Free Agents purely because he’s a phenomenal Corsi player and 5-on-5 scorer. In terms of 5v5 play, he averaged 2.27 points per 60 minutes and outshot his opposition by 18.99 attempts per 60 minutes. He’s also scored over 20 goals in 4 of the last 5 seasons despite playing for the abysmal Maple Leafs. Continue reading Ponikarovsky Signing Gives LA a Line of Corsi Kings
by Ryan Popilchak
A review of Kovalchuk’s contract that I wrote for Puck Prospectus on Wednesday. I was away for a few days so didn’t have time to share it here until now.
Front Office Focus – Is the NHL doing the Devils a Favor with the Kovalchuk contract?
All H-E-double-hockey-sticks has broken loose with the NHL rejecting Ilya Kovalchuk’s contract with the New Jersey Devils. Kovalchuk has been free agency’s poster boy for the “superstar” looking for a mega-deal. He got it, and then some.
The Devils signed Kovalchuk to a 17-year contract worth $102M. The problem is that the last six years have such a deflated salary that it set alarm bells off in the NHL offices as a way to circumvent the cap.
The first 11 years of the contract total $98.5M, which would be a cap hit of $8.95M per year. With the final six years tagged on, the cap hit is only $6M per. Those “sham years” effectively saved the Devils almost $3M in cap space despite the fact that it’s highly unlikely Kovalchuk will play until he’s 44.
While there are other contracts that have used similar shrinking salaries over the final years of the deal, none were this blatant. The NHL picked this deal to draw the line and say enough is enough.
The real question, however, is whether this was a good deal for the Devils in the first place. Continue reading Kovalchuk’s Contract: Published on Puck Prospectus
by Ryan Popilchak
Yesterday over at Behind the Net, Gabe made a post about Mikko Koivu’s contract extension with the Wild. In the comments, there was some great debate about how the contract compared to those signed by Tomas Plekanec and Nicklas Backstrom. Given that I’d written up reviews of both contracts here and here, I figured it was worth comparing Koivu’s deal to these two.
First off, we need to compare Koivu’s extension to the top 25 forwards by cap hit. I’ve used GVT as the measure of value here since Goals Versus Threshold should be fairly universal, given that it combines both offense and defense.
Put simply, does Koivu have the same production for every dollar the Wild spent when compared to the other top-paid forwards in the league? Overpaying for a player that isn’t truly top-tier can be the easiest way to sink a team’s cap space, just ask the New York Knicks. Continue reading Mikko Koivu’s New Contract: Seems Inflated
by Ryan Popilchak
Here is the story as published on Puck Prospectus today.
Front Office Focus – The Flames Free Agent Moves
Free agency frequently brings a variety of deals that range from astute to downright absurd. This year’s free agency period was no different.
While there are a variety of teams that have appeared to alter their talent level significantly for better or worse, the Calgary Flames easily had some of the most head-scratching moves.
Flames GM Darryl Sutter navigated the opening day of free agency by securing contracts for Alex Tanguay and Olli Jokinen. This obviously surprised many in the media and fans alike, since Sutter had previously set both players adrift via trade.
Another curious move that has been overshadowed by the two high profile signings was the buyout of Nigel Dawes. Dawes had a solid season for the Flames last year with a 4.8 GVT and a cap hit of $850,000 next season, before becoming a restricted free agent the following summer. Continue reading Published on Puck Prospectus: The Flames Big FA Moves
by Ryan Popilchak
We’re almost a week into Free Agency at this point and there is no way to declare who has won or lost, just like we should never declare the winner of the NHL draft two days after it’s happened.
That said, we can definitely evaluate the dollars spent at various positions and the deals that seem more or less efficient based on past performance as an indicator of future performance.
Methodology
In order to keep it clean and simple, I used GVT as my sole measure of the value for each player. However, I did use each player’s average GVT over the past three seasons to smooth out the effects of a career year or possibly a truly ugly season.
For those that are still new to the advanced stats used to measure NHL players, check out the explanations here.
I only included players that had an average GVT greater than 4.0, indicating a 3rd line forward, 3rd pairing defenseman or at least a serviceable backup goaltender. I’ve only included players signed since July 1st, as that’s when the free-for-all began.
Each player’s average GVT was then compared to the cap hit of his new contract, minus the league minimum, since we’re comparing to a replacement-level player. Obviously teams who get more value for their money (in terms of goals) will win more over the long term. Continue reading NHL Free Agency – A Look at Value
by Ryan Popilchak
After watching a thrilling comeback by the Netherlands yesterday to knock Brazil out of the World Cup, most fans were treated to yet another riveting finish to a game.
Unfortunately, the overtime match between Uruguay and Ghana ended in some controversy. With the score level and a mere 30 seconds or so left on the clock, Ghana assaulted the Uruguay goal. Uruguay striker, Luis Suarez used his hands to knock the ball off the goal line. The ref called the play correctly, giving Suarez a red card and awarding a penalty shot to Ghana. Controversay followed anyway.
Continue reading Dear FIFA, Give Your Heads a Shake
by Ryan Popilchak
Let’s put it this way. I don’t give a flying puck where LeBron is going on July 1st. I care about celebrating Canada Day and seeing where NHL free agents end up. As a fan, there are always players that are more fun to track than others, since they could have a big impact on your team’s fortunes.
In my mind, here are the 4 most intriguing free agents in this year’s crop.
Continue reading The NHL’s Most Intriguing Free Agents
by Ryan Popilchak
Here is the latest analysis I wrote for the great team at Puck Prospectus. Feel free to read it over there with this link or continue reading below.
The reason I wanted to explore the contract value was the initial reaction so many people had to the dollar figure. I personally felt it was WAY too much at first, but have come around to believing it was a Kesler-level deal, which is decent, but not over the top either. Enjoy.
Continue reading Published on Puck Prospectus: The Tomas Plekanec Contract
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Last year, I kicked off the NFL season in the infancy of Sports Opinionated with a 4 part preview that outlined my thoughts on predictions for the upcoming season. 
